On May 9, 2025, at 17:00 CET, Natus Vincere will face Karmine Corp in the VCT 2025: EMEA Stage 1 Playoffs, a prestigious tournament held in Germany. This best-of-three series promises to be intense, as both teams are battling for advancement in the lower bracket, with the losing side eliminated from the tournament and losing their chance to qualify for Masters Toronto 2025 and EWC 2025. We’ve analyzed the statistics and current form of both teams to make a prediction for the match outcome. More details about the match can be found here.
Current form of the teams
Natus Vincere, a team with a long-standing legacy, is currently going through a challenging period. They maintain a decent overall win rate of 53%. However, their recent form has shown inconsistency: a 29% win rate over the past year and 38% over the last six months. In the past month, they’ve managed to stabilize with a 50% win rate. Their recent matches have been mixed. They suffered a loss to BBL Esports in the upper bracket quarterfinals, but previously secured wins over Team Vitality — one of Europe’s top teams — as well as GIANTX and Apeks. Their performance at VCT 2025: EMEA Stage 1 remains inconsistent so far.
The revamped Karmine Corp roster, on the other hand, hasn’t shown much better results, winning only two out of five matches during EMEA Stage 1. Over the past month, their win rate stands at 33%. Their last five matches include losses to Team Liquid, FUT Esports, and BBL Esports, along with wins against Gentle Mates and KOI — teams that failed to make it out of the group stage. Those two victories were just enough to secure a playoff spot, but only in the lower bracket — where NAVI also landed after their loss to BBL Esports.
Head-to-Head
The updated rosters of Natus Vincere and Karmine Corp have faced each other only once — on January 15, 2025 — where KC claimed a 2:1 victory. Prior to that, NAVI had won three head-to-head encounters, but those matches featured different lineups on both sides.
Match Prediction
Based on current form and head-to-head history, Natus Vincere are expected to win this series with a predicted score of 2:1. Despite both teams struggling, NAVI appear to be in better shape than KC and have shown more confident performances against top-tier teams. Therefore, we believe their chances of winning are higher — though the match is likely to be closely contested.
Prediction: NAVI 2:1 Karmine Corp
Match odds:
VCT 2025: EMEA Stage 1 takes place from March 26 to May 18 in LAN-format at Riot Games Arena in Berlin. Twelve VCT EMEA partner teams will compete for 3 invitations to Masters Toronto, as well as EMEA Points, which are required to qualify for future World Championships.
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