January 22 will be the decisive day for one of the teams—EDward Gaming or XLG Esports—as the losing side in this matchup will leave the tournament permanently. Considering that XLG has defeated their upcoming opponent twice during the offseason, the match promises to be highly intense and thrilling. In this article, we will try to predict the winner by analyzing statistics, current form, and other game-related factors.

Current Form of the Teams

XLG Esports

XLG Esports has shown excellent form in recent tournaments. The team won the Superb Cup and finished second at the Shanghai Esports Masters 2024. At the VCT 2025: China Kickoff, they achieved three wins out of four matches, losing only to BiliBili Gaming. This tournament marks XLG Esports' debut at such a high level, and they have already managed to defeat three teams ranked in the top ten of the region.

EDward Gaming

EDward Gaming, as the reigning world champion, has demonstrated somewhat inconsistent results. They participated in the Superb Cup, FGC VALORANT Invitational 2024, and WALL-E Cup, securing two second-place finishes and one 5th-6th place finish. At the VCT 2025: China Kickoff, the team lost one of their two matches but remains a favorite due to their extensive experience.

Map Pool Analysis

Predicted Map Choices

Map Bans:

• XLG Esports traditionally bans Fracture, as this map is the least comfortable for the team.
• EDward Gaming, on the other hand, almost always bans Abyss in line with their strategy to avoid unfavorable maps.

Map Picks:

• XLG Esports is likely to choose Bind, their strongest map, boasting a 74% win rate.
• EDward Gaming may opt for Split, which also yields decent results for the team (58% win rate).

Decider:

• If the teams exchange bans and picks, the deciding map is expected to be Lotus, which is relatively comfortable for both sides.

Head-to-Head Matches

In the past month, XLG Esports and EDward Gaming have faced each other twice in offseason tournaments, with XLG Esports securing clean 2-0 victories in both encounters. However, these matches took place during the offseason and may not fully reflect the teams' actual strength in the VCT playoffs, where a slot at Masters Bangkok and crucial China Points for Champions 2025 qualification are on the line.

Match Prediction

Based on statistics and head-to-head records, XLG Esports seems like the more confident contender compared to EDward Gaming. However, the reigning world champions are unlikely to give up victory easily, considering their significant experience advantage over XLG.

Expected Outcome: A 2:1 victory for EDward Gaming, though XLG Esports has a genuine chance to pull off an upset and eliminate EDward Gaming from contention for the Masters Bangkok slot.

The VCT 2025: China Kickoff runs from January 11 to 25 as a LAN event at the VCT CN Arena in Shanghai. Twelve partnered teams from the VCT program compete for two spots at Masters Bangkok and valuable China Points, which are critical for qualifying for the World Championship.