On May 3, 2025, at 11:00 AM UTC, T1 will face off against Paper Rex in the lower bracket of the VCT 2025: Pacific Stage 1 Playoffs. This best-of-3 series is crucial for both teams as they battle to stay in the tournament and compete for a Masters Toronto 2025 slot. We have analyzed the statistics and the current form of the teams to make a prediction for the match outcome. Watch the match here.

Current form of the teams

T1, despite being a formidable team as winner Masters Bangkok 2025, has been struggling recently. They currently hold a win streak of zero, with a recent form that includes three consecutive losses. Their recent matches have seen them fall to DRX, TALON, and Rex Regum Qeon. However, they did manage to secure victories against Team Secret and Nongshim RedForce earlier in the tournament. T1’s overall win rate stands at 57%, with a recent half-year win rate of 70%, although their performance in the last month has dipped to 25%. Financially, T1 has been successful, earning $312,678 over the past six months, placing them at the top of the earnings leaderboard. The largest share of this money comes from their victory at the Masters.

Paper Rex, on the other hand, have shown even more inconsistency recently compared to last year. Their advance to the lower bracket of the playoffs is largely the result of a favorable group stage seeding and strong performances against weaker regional teams. They come into this match on a two-game winning streak, having recently defeated Global Esports and DetonatioN FocusMe. Despite earlier losses to BOOM Esports, Gen.G Esports, and DRX, they maintain a solid overall win rate of 65%, with an impressive 67% over the past month — though that’s based on just three matches.

Head-to-Head

Historically, Paper Rex hold an advantage over T1, boasting an 86% win rate in past encounters. Out of their last five matchups, Paper Rex have won four, while T1 managed just one victory. In their most recent clash on January 20, 2025, T1 defeated Paper Rex, breaking a streak of dominant 2-0 wins by Paper Rex in previous series. However, it’s important to note that both teams were playing at a very different level back then compared to now.

Match Prediction

Considering current form, historical stats, and win probability, Paper Rex are likely to put up a fight, but a win seems unlikely. T1 have strong potential to take the victory despite their recent struggles. While past encounters show Paper Rex’s clear dominance, this time it won’t be easy for them — these are not the same T1 from before. T1 come into the match as favorites, and we predict a 2-1 win in their favor.

Prediction: T1 2:1 Paper Rex

Match odds:

T1 (1.58) vs. Paper Rex (2.20) — May 2, 2025, 17:50 CEST.

Odds are taken from Stake.com and are current at the time of publication.

VCT 2025: Pacific Stage 1 takes place from March 22 to May 11. During the event, teams compete for three slots at VCT 2025: Masters Toronto and Pacific Points, which are necessary for further qualification to VALORANT Champions. For more details on the match schedule and tournament results, click here.