On July 30, 2025, at 11:00 AM UTC, Nova Esports will face off against XLG Esports in a best-of-3 series as part of the VCT 2025: China Stage 2 Group Omega. This tournament, which is currently ongoing, is a significant event in the Valorant esports calendar, taking place in China. We have analyzed the statistics and the current form of the teams to make a prediction for the match outcome. Watch the match here.

Current form of the teams

Nova Esports has been struggling recently, with their recent performances not reflecting the potential they have shown in the past. Their win rate over the last year stands at 55%, but it has dropped to 50% over the past six months and plummeted to 0% in the recent month. They are currently on a losing streak, having lost their last five matches. In their recent outings in the VCT 2025: China Stage 2, Nova Esports faced defeats against All Gamers, FunPlus Phoenix, and Dragon Ranger Gaming. Their performance in the VALORANT China Evolution Series Act 2 saw them finishing in the 5-8th position.

XLG Esports, on the other hand, is in a much stronger position. They have a solid win rate of 64% overall, with a consistent performance over the past year (61%) and the last six months (55%). XLG Esports is on a two-match winning streak, having recently secured victories against FunPlus Phoenix and Wolves Esports in the VCT 2025: China Stage 2. Their performance in the Esports World Cup 2025, despite not making it past the group stage, earned them $15,000, placing them 13th in earnings over the last six months. This consistency and recent form make XLG Esports a formidable opponent.

Head-to-Head

Historically, XLG Esports has had the upper hand in their encounters with Nova Esports. Out of their last four meetings, XLG Esports has emerged victorious three times. This previous win for Nova Esports could provide them with a psychological edge, but given the overall 75% win rate XLG Esports holds against Nova, the latter will have a tough challenge ahead.

Prediction

Based on the current form and historical data, XLG Esports is predicted to win this match with a 2-0 scoreline. Their superior win rate, recent performances, and head-to-head record against Nova Esports suggest that they are the stronger team going into this matchup. Nova Esports will need to significantly step up their game to overcome XLG Esports, but as it stands, XLG is likely to take the victory.

Match Prediction: XLG Esports 2:0 Nova Esports

VCT 2025: China Stage 2 takes place from July 3 to August 31 in China, featuring top-tier teams competing for a prestigious title. You can follow the news, schedule, and results of the tournament via the official tournament page.