The latest Dota 2 update, patch 7.39e, released about two months ago, hasn't significantly altered the meta. The community hasn't seen major changes since summer, so players are eagerly anticipating the potential release of patch 7.40. With Valve's activity on the staging server and the start of DreamLeague Season 27, the likelihood of an update in December has sharply increased.

Why Patch 7.40 Might Really Release in December

1. Valve's Historical Pattern Post-TI

Over the past four years, Valve has only released one major "numbered" patch by the end of the year after The International. Typically, large updates are postponed to January–February. However, the current situation deviates from this logic due to several factors outlined below.

2. Activity on the Staging Server

According to SteamDB, the Dota 2 staging server is being updated much more frequently than usual from late November to early December. This kind of activity is typically associated with the preparation of new game systems, visuals, or balance tweaks. Although a staging server update itself doesn't guarantee a patch release, this pattern consistently repeats before major releases.

3. DreamLeague as a "Magnet" for Patches

In the past two years, three out of four major patches — 7.36, 7.38, 7.39 — were released during DreamLeague, between tournament stages. This has become a trend: Valve prefers to release updates during short breaks between the group stage and playoffs.

Why this matters now:

• DreamLeague Season 27 runs from December 10 to 21.
• Playoffs start on December 17, and Valve never interferes with patches during this period.

So, the only remaining windows are:

• December 10–11,
• December 15–16.

Fridays, Saturdays, and Sundays are excluded — Valve doesn't release major patches on weekends due to bug risks.

4. The Most Likely Release Date for Patch 7.40

The most probable date is December 16.

Reasons:

• It's the last day between DreamLeague stages;
• It's a Tuesday — one of the most common days for Valve releases;
• Staging activity has intensified precisely by mid-December.

When Patch 7.40 Might Release

Valve's recent major updates have been published between 00:00 and 02:00 CET. If this trend continues, patch 7.40 is expected during this time frame.

What Might Appear in Patch 7.40

Based on current data from the test client and internal server activity:

1. New Hero — Frog Bard

On the night of September 27, its model and animation set were added to the test server. This is usually the final step before a hero is released in the main client.

2. Winter Event or Holiday Chests

Valve traditionally releases winter content in December. Even if there's no full-fledged event, seasonal cases and cosmetics have appeared every year.

3. Major Rebalance

Patch 7.39e barely changed the meta: top heroes still dominate in public and pro scenes. Expectations include:

• Revamping the strongest heroes (Muerta, Treant Protector, Necrophos);
• Strengthening roamers and offlaners whose roles have weakened.

4. Update to the Neutral Items Pool

Valve updates this system annually. Possible changes include:

• Rotation of old items;
• Return of reworked versions of previously removed artifacts;
• Adjusting the power of tier 4–5 items.

5. New Items and Economy Changes

In ".0" patches, Valve regularly adds new items or mechanics (example: neutral items in 7.23, new actives in 7.30).

In 7.40, we might see:

• Alternative starting items;
• New items for supports;
• Adjustments to gold and experience.

6. Map Changes

The map is usually not changed in winter, but in ".0" patches, Valve often introduces:

• Forest adjustments;
• High ground reworks;
• Strengthening/weakening central control zones.