Pre-Finals Analysis: The Long and Winding Dota 2 Road

It’s been just a few days and 101 games, but many things have happened in the Dota competitive landscape. As we’ve journeyed through The Road to the International we’ve seen some fantastic and shocking games. Let’s talk about a few interesting things that have happened along the way.

Falcons Can Bleed

Team Falcons were, by far, the overall pre-event favourites for analysts, bookmakers, and fans alike.They hadn’t dominated the entire season in the same way that Gaimin Gladiators had recently done, but they came close to it - winning four tier one events and consistent performance throughout. They were in a group with BetBoom Team, Team Zero, and nouns - and the only questions really being asked of that group was if BetBoom could take a game off Falcons (and who between nouns and Zero would come last!).

Falcons ended up dropping games to both Zero and nouns, but took the top seed after 2-0’ing BetBoom and trumping Zero in a tiebreaker. After dropping a game in the Seeding Decider against beastcoast, Falcons were just one loss away from the Loser’s Bracket.

This inconsistency by Falcons isn’t unprecedented - they have often had shaky starts to events, but to drop three games against three separate teams that most believed were not top-8 quality was wild. Falcons have since stabilised with a win against 1w Team in the Lower Bracket but will need to win five more matches in a row to claim the Aegis of Champions.

Team Spirit Blown Away

Team Spirit finished 9-12th, a result that was mostly unexpected. Within the Eastern European community there were rumours and allegations that Spirit were struggling however this was mostly interpreted as that they wouldn’t be fighting for top 3, not that they’d be crashing out and earning just $50k. After such a clean 6-0 group stage Spirit fans were able to breathe a sigh of relief, but the situation suddenly became precarious as they were upset 2-0’d by nouns. With their tournament life on the line they had to go on a Lower Bracket run - a feat they had done successfully at The International 2021 where they won 6 series in a row to claim the Aegis. Here they managed to comfortably push past G2 x IG, but Xtreme Gaming took them to the limit and won in a three game thriller.

Something I noticed was looking at how this team had adapted over the years, specifically Yatoro. To be clear, I’m not suggesting that this is a problem - just something interesting to look at how teams have evolved with the changes to the game and the drafting mechanics.

In both 2021 and 2023 (the years in which Team Spirit won The International), Yatoro was praised for his wide hero pool and general flexibility in the role. He seemed near flawless no matter the hero or the laning setup. He made on-the-fly item build and play style adaptations as the game demanded, showing a deep understanding no matter the situation.

In 2021 he played 21 heroes in 36 games - the most of any player and 5 more than Y` & MATUMBAMAN who were tied in 2nd place.

Being able to pick a core hero later in the draft can provide a tremendous advantage, and one that teams generally split between their carry and mid laner. In The International 2021, TORONTOTOKYO and Yatoro shared last pick in 34/36 games (20 TORONTO; 14 Yatoro), and Yatoro’s hero was 4th or 5th pick in 29/36 games. When Yatoro had last pick, his wide hero pool meant that he could eke out that tiny extra bit of advantage by having the most favourable matchup, but also reduce the impact of scouting by opposition teams as he kept things unpredictable and fresh.

From TI 2021 to TI 2023, his Average Draft Position (ADP) went from 4.06 (7th highest of 90 players) to 3.48 (29th out of 100 players) - providing Collapse and Larl with last pick in 13 of the 21 (61.9%) of Spirit’s games, seemingly to give them a better laning matchup.

Draft Position Distribution, The International 2024

At The International 2024 his ADP dropped to 3.23 (32nd out of 80 players) and he played just 6 unique heroes (in 13 games). Six players have played fewer heroes so far, but four of them (Kataomi, DM, 33, and Boxi) are still in the tournament and will likely expand their pools as they each have at least two more series.

To me there are two major plausible explanations for this shift. The first is that some teams did not appropriately value some core heroes such as Mirana and Luna, but Yatoro was confident in his ability to play them even if they were picked early (and blindly) in the draft. It could also be that these heroes were just flex picks, and either Larl or Yatoro would play them - though this isn’t something we saw happen frequently (the only hero common between them was Dragon Knight where Yatoro played it once, and Larl played it twice).

The second justification could be that Spirit were interested in experimenting, giving their supports the last pick in order to dominate the side lanes. Against G2 x iG for example, Mira got last pick in both games with Dark Willow (going 3/3/18 and involved in 21/25 kills) and then Clockwerk.

36 players (of the 80) have had 0 or 1 last picks at The International 2024. This represents 14 of the 16 teams - just Team Spirit and Team Falcons have spread that last pick to every player at least once. Overall I think this is an interesting metric to track as teams constantly reinvent themselves to solve the ever-changing changes to Dota 2.

European Dominance, China To Bounce Back Stronger?

The last thing I’d like to touch on is the European dominance at The International 2024. Over the history of The International the most successful regions were Europe (now split into Eastern and Western Europe), and China. North America found success in 2015/2016 making two successive finals, whereas in 2012 &  2014 it was China which dominated the top 6 classification. In the last few years China has struggled - in 3 of the last 4 years they’ve failed to have a team in the finals. 

This year with the Xtreme vs Team Spirit Lower Bracket elimination match, China was just 1 game loss away from having 0 teams in the top 8, something they’ve never done before. At the very best they will have 1 team in the top 4 and 1 in the top 8 - tied for their worst performance ever (along with 2016 and 2018). At least in 2016 there was the consolation that Wings Gaming took home the Aegis, but overall we can only hope that Chinese Dota is able to bounce back after this challenging season, bringing multiple competitive teams at the top of the competitive scene once more.