On April 18, Trace Esports will once again face Nova Esports this year in the playoff stage of the VCT 2025: China Stage 1 tournament. This match is crucial, as its outcome will determine which team leaves the tournament. In this article, we assessed both teams’ form and, based on statistics and our vision of the game, made a prediction for the winner.
Current Form of the Teams
Trace Esports
Trace Esports started 2025 quite strongly, finishing second at VCT 2025: China Kickoff. However, their subsequent performances have been inconsistent: the team failed to reach the top 8 at Masters Bangkok and was eliminated early in China Evolution Series: Act 1, placing among the 9th–12th spots.
At the current VCT 2025: China Stage 1 tournament, Trace won 3 out of 5 matches in the Omega group, which allowed them to qualify for the playoffs, but only from fourth place and directly into the lower bracket. The team has not made any roster changes, which may indicate either stability or a lack of development.
Nova Esports
Nova Esports didn’t start the season well, finishing 7th–8th at the China Kickoff and failing to qualify for Masters. Their victory at China Evolution Series Act 1 was a certain achievement, but the tournament did not carry much weight, and some teams approached it without proper preparation.
In the Alpha group at Stage 1, Nova won 3 out of 5 matches, securing third place and advancing to the upper bracket of the playoffs. However, a loss to XLG pushed them into the lower bracket, where they will now meet Trace.
Team Map Pool
The expected map selection looks as follows:
First Ban:
- Trace Esports will likely ban Icebox
- Nova Esports usually ban Haven
Team Picks:
- Trace Esports will pick Lotus
- Nova Esports will likely pick Split
Second Ban:
- Trace may remove Ascent
- Nova will likely ban Pearl
Decider:
- Fracture
Head-to-Head Matches
The teams have met five times over the past year. In 2024, Trace Esports won all three of their direct encounters. However, in 2025, the situation changed: Nova Esports won two matches in a row, including recent games. This suggests a slight edge for Nova in recent matchups, even though Trace has more historical wins.
Match Prediction
The match looks quite balanced. Trace Esports have more tournament experience on big stages and showed strong results at the start of the year, but their recent performances have been unconvincing.
On the other hand, Nova Esports have won the last two head-to-head matches, possess a strong map pool with reliable performances on Split and Ascent, and appear better prepared tactically overall. The key factor will be the first map — if Trace manage to set the tone on Lotus, they could pose serious problems for Nova. However, the overall form and map pool tilt the scales in favor of Nova Esports.
Prediction: Nova Esports to win 2:1.
VCT 2025: China Stage 1 takes place from March 13 to May 4 in a LAN format at the VCT CN Arena in Shanghai. Twelve partnered VCT China teams are competing for 3 invitations to Masters Toronto, as well as China Points needed to qualify for the upcoming Champions.
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