The fourth game day of VCT 2025: China Stage 1 will conclude with a match between FunPlus Phoenix and TEC Esports, marking the final match of the first round in Group Alpha. In this article, we will attempt to predict the winner by determining the frontrunner.

Current Form of Teams

FunPlus Phoenix

FunPlus Phoenix has participated in two tournaments this year—VCT 2025: China Kickoff, where they finished 5th-6th, and VALORANT China Evolution Series Act 1, where they placed 5th-8th.

The team has won only 1 of their last 5 matches—the victory came against TEC Esports at China Evolution. However, this match held less significance than those in VCT. After a poor start to the season, FunPlus Phoenix made roster changes, signing Shr1mp to replace BerLIN, who retired from professional play.

TEC Esports

TEC Esports is in an even worse situation—their two tournaments in 2025 both ended in a 9th-12th place finish. They have also won only 1 of their last 5 matches, defeating TYLOO.

Like FunPlus Phoenix, TEC underwent roster changes: Shr1mp left the team to join FPX, and they signed CoCo and TvirusLuke as replacements. Currently, TEC Esports' active roster consists of eight players.

Map Pool of the Teams

Predicted Map Picks and Bans

First Ban Phase:

• FunPlus Phoenix bans Split, their usual choice.
• TEC Esports also bans Split, forcing them to adjust to a new scenario.

Map Picks:

• FunPlus Phoenix picks Lotus, one of their frequent choices.
• TEC Esports picks Fracture or Pearl, depending on their strategy.

Second Ban Phase:

• FunPlus Phoenix bans Icebox to avoid playing on a map they struggle with.
• TEC Esports bans Haven, where FPX has a low win rate but plays often.

Decider: Ascent

Head-to-Head Matches

Over the past six months, the teams have faced each other twice. TEC Esports won the first encounter, but two months ago, FunPlus Phoenix took revenge with a 2-1 victory.

Match Prediction

Both teams have shown weak performances in 2025, but FPX's recent win over TEC Esports and their roster changes could give them a slight edge. TEC Esports has potential, but their unstable roster and weak win rates on key maps might work against them.

Expected Score: 2-1 in favor of FunPlus Phoenix. Given their slight progress and recent victory over TEC, FPX appears to be the favorites, but the match is expected to be close.

VCT 2025: China Stage 1 runs from March 13 to May 4 in a LAN format at the VCT CN Arena in Shanghai. Twelve partnered VCT China teams will compete for three slots at Masters Toronto and China Points, which are crucial for securing a spot at the upcoming World Championship.