On October 3, 2025, at 11:00 AM UTC, Fnatic will face off against NRG in the VALORANT Champions 2025 Playoffs. This best-of-3 match is part of the upper bracket, promising an intense showdown between these two formidable teams. The tournament, held in France, is currently underway and features some of the best talent in the VALORANT scene. We have analyzed the statistics and the current form of the teams to make a prediction for the match outcome. You can view the match details here.

Current form of the teams

Fnatic is currently in impressive form, riding a four-match winning streak. Their recent performances in the VALORANT Champions 2025 have been stellar, with victories against top-ranked teams such as Paper Rex and DRX. Fnatic’s overall win rate stands at an impressive 75%, with a remarkable 100% win rate over the last month. They have demonstrated their prowess by consistently outplaying their opponents, as evidenced by their recent victories over Paper Rex, DRX, MIBR, and Rex Regum Qeon. Despite a setback against GIANTX in the VCT 2025: EMEA Stage 2, Fnatic has bounced back strongly, showcasing resilience and strategic depth. Over the past six months, Fnatic has earned $440,000, ranking third in earnings among their competitors.

NRG, on the other hand, is also on a four-match winning streak, reflecting their strong form heading into this match. Their recent triumphs in the VALORANT Champions 2025 include victories over MIBR, GIANTX, and DRX. NRG boasts a 64% overall win rate, with a perfect 100% win rate in the past month, highlighting their current peak performance. Despite a loss to G2 Esports in the VCT 2025: Americas Stage 2 Grand Final, NRG has shown remarkable improvement and adaptability. Their earnings over the last six months amount to $105,000, placing them 11th in the earnings ranking.

Map Pool

NRG will almost certainly remove Fracture, as Fnatic has a perfect record there (100%), while the Americans themselves look weak (33%). In response, Fnatic will logically ban Pearl, where NRG has a 100% record (4 wins out of 4), while Fnatic's only match ended in defeat.

The picture is more interesting in the peaks: Fnatic may choose Fracture or Split, as they consistently perform well on these maps (100% and 89%), while NRG only has 33% and 75% respectively. NRG, on the other hand, will most likely choose Lotus or Icebox, where they have an 82% WR and feel confident in recent games.

If it comes down to a decisive map, we will most likely see Haven or Bind. Here, the odds will be more or less equal: both teams have approximately 50-57% wins, but NRG has shown slightly more consistent form in the last five games.

Prediction

Based on the current form, historical data, and win probabilities, Fnatic is favored to win this match with a predicted score of 2:0. Fnatic’s superior recent performance, coupled with their historical success against NRG, suggests they are likely to continue their winning streak. The combination of Fnatic’s strategic depth, adaptability, and psychological advantage positions them as the likely victors in this encounter.

Match Prediction: Fnatic 2:0 NRG

VALORANT Champions 2025 takes place from September 12 to October 5 in France, featuring a prize pool of $2,250,000. You can follow the news, schedule, and results of the tournament via the link.