The BLAST Bounty Fall 2025: Closed Qualifier is about to kick off, and the tournament promises to be fierce: 32 teams, one of the year's most intense and unforgiving formats, and a real chance for underdogs to leave the top teams empty-handed. Every match is like the last. In such a scenario, even the most successful clubs might not survive the first wave of attacks.

The scene is heated not only by the number of participants but also by the tension within tier-1: some teams are on autopilot, while others are breaking and rebuilding their rosters on the fly. To understand the condition each team is in as they approach the tournament, BLAST consulted five-time Major champion and analyst Peter "dupreeh" Rasmussen, who broke down the participants: favorites, hidden threats, and teams on the brink of failure.

Vitality — the undisputed leader of the year

A victory at the BLAST.tv Austin Major and their dominant form have made them the benchmark for success. Dupreeh states outright — their status as favorites is unquestionable:

As long as they continue their form, Vitality will enter any tournament for the next three to four months as the favourite, regardless of what happens.

Peter "dupreeh" Rasmussen

Even if competitors strengthen, and other top teams make big transfers, Vitality still remains "the team to beat." Dupreeh emphasizes that their current level allows them to enter any tournament as favorites, regardless of the bracket or opponents. While others are merely catching up, Vitality is already at the top — showing no signs of decline.

Spirit — bold changes that might work

The Spirit team is one of the few that consciously took a risk by replacing magixx with the rising star zweih. The decision was made after a disappointing quarterfinal exit at the Austin Major. According to dupreeh, it was necessary.

There wouldn't be a case where Spirit would be left out of my top three. Spirit dared to make changes...

Peter "dupreeh" Rasmussen

The new player immediately lived up to expectations:

zweih made a name for himself during the tournament... and Spirit didn't hesitate to make the change.

Peter "dupreeh" Rasmussen

With sh1ro and donk still on the roster, Spirit can aim for more than just the semifinals.

MOUZ — consistency that delivers results

MOUZ often stays in the shadows due to the absence of a "superstar," but dupreeh considers them one of the teams steadily on the rise. He notes that the roster is cohesive, disciplined, and capable of defeating anyone.

They don't have a ZywOo, and they don't have donk. But they do have a well established playbook, and great individual players...

Peter "dupreeh" Rasmussen

Dupreeh also mentioned that MOUZ is just one decisive step away from finally defeating Vitality and capturing a major trophy. And this could happen in Malta.

NIP — a project on the edge: either take off or crash

NIP made significant roster changes, bringing in Snappi and adding fresh players like sjuush and r1nkle. Dupreeh sees them as a team that can both surprise and disappoint.

They believe in themselves and I think this is the right tournament for them to get even better.

Peter "dupreeh" Rasmussen

He notes that Snappi already had successful experience building teams — at least with ENCE — and now he's trying to replicate that path with NIP. But failure at Bounty could shake confidence in the project.

Astralis — hope in character and structure

When it comes to Astralis, dupreeh doesn't hide — the team has been in crisis for a long time. But after signing HooXi, the situation began to improve. The team has already reached the finals twice, though without victories.

They have shown that they can take on a lot of good teams, and even push the best, but they still have a long way to go.

Peter "dupreeh" Rasmussen

Dupreeh also mentioned that amid rumors of the organization's bankruptcy, Astralis simply can't afford failures. They need to progress from tournament to tournament, and right now, everything depends on device, stavn, and HooXi's decisions.

G2 — a team at risk of early exit

The season for G2 is a real stress test. The departure of NiKo and m0NESY, a new coach sAw, sniper SunPayus, and now huNter- as captain. All this makes the team unstable and potentially vulnerable, especially in such a tough tournament.

The biggest questionmark for me is huNter-'s transition to an IGL. It's not an easy task and it takes time to even come to master.

Peter "dupreeh" Rasmussen

According to dupreeh, if G2 exits early — it will be painful, but perhaps beneficial for restructuring.

BLAST Bounty Fall 2025 is not just another event, but a tournament for the entire top tier. Vitality looks like the main contenders, but Spirit and MOUZ are close on their heels. NIP and Astralis are dangerous underdogs, while G2 risks leaving the tournament too early.