In the playoff qualifying match at BLAST Open Spring 2025, we anticipate an intense duel between NAVI and The MongolZ. The Ukrainian team is eager to redeem themselves after mixed performances in recent tournaments, while the Mongolian team continues to show consistent results and has already defeated NAVI this season. In this article, we will analyze the current form of the teams, their map pool, and attempt to predict the outcome of the upcoming confrontation.
Current Form of the Teams
NAVI approaches the playoff qualifying match at BLAST Open Spring 2025 in an uncertain form. The team's average rating over the past month is 6.1, highlighting their instability in major tournaments. At ESL Pro League Season 21, they advanced to the playoffs with a 3-1 record but then lost to The MongolZ in the quarterfinals. This result indicates that NAVI has potential but struggles in crucial matches.
| Date | Team | Score | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 20 | Natus Vincere | 2 - 0 | FURIA |
| March 14 | Natus Vincere | 0 - 2 | The MongolZ |
| March 10 | Natus Vincere | 2 - 0 | G2 |
| March 09 | Natus Vincere | 2 - 0 | paiN |
| March 08 | Natus Vincere | 2 - 1 | TYLOO |
The MongolZ continues to demonstrate consistent results. Their average rating for the past month is 6.0. At PGL Cluj-Napoca 2025, they confidently passed the group stage with a 3-0 record but then lost to Astralis. In ESL Pro League Season 21, they also reached the playoffs with a 3-1 record but couldn't defeat Vitality in the semifinals. However, their performances in recent tournaments show that the team can compete with top-tier rosters.
| Date | Team | Score | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 20 | The MongolZ | 2 - 1 | M80 |
| March 15 | The MongolZ | 1 - 2 | Vitality |
| March 14 | The MongolZ | 2 - 0 | Natus Vincere |
| March 10 | The MongolZ | 2 - 0 | 3DMAX |
| March 09 | The MongolZ | 0 - 2 | Spirit |
Map Pool
NAVI is likely to focus on Dust2 or Ancient, as these are their strong maps. On Dust2, they have a 62% win rate over 13 matches, and on Ancient, a 68% win rate over 19 games. They have avoided Train since its return to the map pool but recently played it unexpectedly against paiN and secured a win, which might influence their ban decision.
The MongolZ will likely also ban Train, as they haven't played it at all. For their pick, they might choose Mirage, where they have a 68% win rate over 19 games, or Inferno, on which they achieved a 75% win rate, making it their most reliable map. Ancient also remains a comfortable choice for them, as they have won 67% of their matches on this map (21 games).
| Map | The MongolZ Winrate | M | B | Last 5 Matches (The MongolZ) | Natus Vincere Winrate | M | B | Last 5 Matches (Natus Vincere) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Train | 0% | 0 | 14 | FB, FB, FB, FB, FB | 100% | 1 | 10 | W, W, W, W, W |
| Anubis | 73% | 11 | 8 | W, L, L, W, L | 100% | 4 | 14 | W, W, W, W, W |
| Inferno | 75% | 12 | 3 | W, W, L, L, L | 53% | 15 | 8 | W, W, L, W, FB |
| Dust II | 73% | 11 | 13 | W, L, W, W, W | 58% | 12 | 4 | W, W, L, W, W |
| Nuke | 43% | 7 | 14 | L, W, L, W, W | 54% | 13 | 7 | W, W, L, W, W |
| Ancient | 61% | 18 | 0 | W, W, L, W, W | 67% | 21 | 4 | L, L, W, W, W |
| Mirage | 65% | 20 | 1 | L, W, W, W, L | 62% | 21 | 0 | W, W, W, W, W |
Past Encounters
The MongolZ and Natus Vincere have already faced each other at ESL Pro League Season 21, where the Mongolian team secured a confident victory with a 2-0 score. They dominated on Ancient (13-6) and Mirage (13-6), indicating their good preparation and understanding of the game against NAVI.
Match Prediction
The MongolZ approach this match with a psychological advantage, having already defeated NAVI. Their consistent results at major events could once again play a decisive role.
NAVI, despite the high individual skill level of their players, have yet to show confident gameplay. Their instability at ESL Pro League Season 21 and the previous loss to The MongolZ put them in a difficult position.
Prediction: The MongolZ 2-1 NAVI
BLAST Open Lisbon 2025 takes place from March 19 to 30. The group stage will be held at the BLAST studio in Copenhagen, and the playoffs will take place at the MEO Arena in Lisbon, Portugal. You can follow the results and progress of the tournament in more detail via this link.
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