- leef
Predictions
17:51, 27.03.2025
In the quarterfinals of the BLAST Open Spring 2025, we anticipate a heated clash between Spirit and Natus Vincere. Spirit continues to gain momentum and has repeatedly proven its superiority over NAVI this season. While NAVI is struggling to overcome their gameplay instability, Spirit enters the match as the favorite. In this article, we will analyze the current form of the teams, their map pool, and provide a prediction for the outcome of this exciting duel.
Current Form of the Teams
NAVI approaches the match in uncertain form. Despite advancing to the playoffs of ESL Pro League Season 21 with a 3-1 record, they fell to The MongolZ in the quarterfinals. At BLAST Open Spring 2025, the team showed inconsistent play: they managed to take revenge on the same MongolZ but then lost the seeding match to Eternal Fire. NAVI's average rating over the past month is 6.0, reflecting their instability.
| Date | Team | Score | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24 | Natus Vincere | 0 - 2 | Eternal Fire |
| Mar 22 | Natus Vincere | 2 - 1 | The MongolZ |
| Mar 20 | Natus Vincere | 2 - 0 | FURIA |
| Mar 14 | Natus Vincere | 0 - 2 | The MongolZ |
| Mar 10 | Natus Vincere | 2 - 0 | G2 |
Meanwhile, Spirit is in much better shape. The team finished in the top 4 at ESL Pro League Season 21 and was a finalist at IEM Katowice 2025. They have been demonstrating confident play for a long period. However, it should be noted that much depends on the form of donk—if he's not at his best, the team might lose even to obviously weaker opponents.
Map Pool
Based on the initial picks, it is most likely that NAVI will choose Mirage—their most frequently played map (22 maps, 64% win rate), despite their weak defensive side. Spirit, on the other hand, will likely choose Dust2, where they have a high win rate (82%) and have already defeated NAVI on it several times in a row.
At the second ban stage, NAVI will likely get rid of Ancient, where Spirit looks stable. Spirit might remove Anubis, considering NAVI's 100% win rate on this map (albeit from only 2 games).
Thus, the decider is highly likely to be Nuke—a map both teams play confidently, and where a spectacular, evenly matched battle is possible.
| Map | NAVI Winrate | M | B | Last 5 Matches (NAVI) | Spirit Winrate | M | B | Last 5 Matches (Spirit) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inferno | 47% | 15 | 7 | W, L, FB, L, L | 0% | 0 | 39 | FB, FB, FB, FB, FB |
| Anubis | 37% | 2 | 15 | W, W | 63% | 16 | 7 | L, W, W, W, W |
| Dust II | 50% | 12 | 3 | W, L, L | 82% | 22 | 2 | W, W, W, W, W |
| Ancient | 59% | 17 | 5 | L, W, L, FB, FB | 67% | 12 | 6 | L, W, W, W, L |
| Nuke | 64% | 11 | 7 | L, W, W, L | 63% | 16 | 8 | W, W, L, W, L |
| Mirage | 64% | 22 | 0 | W, W, L, W, W | 63% | 16 | 6 | L, W, W, W, W |
| Train | 100% | 1 | 10 | FB, FB, FB | 100% | 3 | 8 | W, W, W |
Past Encounters
The teams have faced each other numerous times in recent months—22 maps, of which Spirit won 15. They are particularly strong on Dust2, where they defeated NAVI four times in a row. The latest encounters took place at IEM Katowice 2025 and BLAST Bounty 2025, where Spirit secured six victories out of seven possible maps. NAVI has yet to find a stable recipe for success against this lineup.
Match Prediction
Based on the current form, map statistics, and head-to-head history, Spirit appears to be the favorite for the match. They are more stable, win important games, and regularly outplay NAVI. If donk performs at his level, Spirit has every chance to advance to the semifinals. NAVI can only latch onto the game with a successful map choice and good individual form.
Prediction: Spirit wins 2-1
BLAST Open Lisbon 2025 runs from March 19 to 30. The playoffs will take place at the MEO Arena in Lisbon. Participants are competing for $400,000. You can follow the results and progress of the tournament here.
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