The match between SAW and MIBR in the group stage of IEM Melbourne 2025 will be the last chance for both teams to stay in the tournament. The loser will exit the championship, while the winner keeps their playoff hopes alive. Both teams have not shone in their recent performances, but the stakes are particularly high now, making it an ideal moment for redemption. In this article, we'll analyze the current form of the teams, the potential map pool, and predict the outcome of the match.
Current Team Form
SAW is in a tough spot. The team failed to qualify for the major, finishing 9th–11th in the regional qualifier, and now they must fight for survival at IEM Melbourne. Their average team rating over the past month is 5.9, reflecting instability and rare bursts of confident play. The team has potential, but stability and execution are in question.
| Date | Team | Score | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 21 | SAW | 0 - 2 | Falcons |
| Apr 16 | SAW | 0 - 2 | ENCE |
| Apr 16 | SAW | 2 - 1 | GamerLegion |
| Apr 15 | SAW | 0 - 1 | 9 Pandas |
| Apr 14 | SAW | 1 - 0 | B8 |
MIBR is also going through a challenging period. After a disappointing performance at ESL Pro League Season 21, where they finished 15th–16th, the team hasn't played official matches for over a month. However, in their first match at this tournament, the Brazilians managed to challenge NAVI, winning one map and showing decent form. Their current average rating is 5.7, slightly lower than SAW's, but playing against one of the tournament favorites boosts their confidence.
| Date | Team | Score | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 21 | MIBR | 1 - 2 | Natus Vincere |
| Mar 09 | MIBR | 1 - 2 | FURIA |
| Mar 08 | MIBR | 0 - 2 | Eternal Fire |
| Mar 07 | MIBR | 1 - 2 | Vitality |
| Mar 04 | MIBR | 2 - 0 | TYLOO |
Map Pool
SAW, as before, will almost certainly ban Mirage — they have removed this map 29 times in a row. The most logical pick would be Nuke, where they have a 71% win rate over 24 games, or Dust II, with a 60% win rate. Anubis (50% win rate) is also a possible choice if the opponent allows it. SAW generally feels confident on maps where they can control the pace.
MIBR, on the other hand, consistently bans Dust II — for 40 consecutive matches, making this ban almost guaranteed. A likely pick for the Brazilians would be Ancient, where they have a 71% win rate, or Nuke, where they also show good results (60% win rate over 25 games). Mirage will likely be banned in the second stage due to weak performance (26%).
| Map | SAW WR | SAW Matches | MIBR WR | MIBR Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Train | 40% | 5 | 0% | 2 |
| Mirage | 0% | 24 | 38% | 13 |
| Dust II | 36% | 11 | 0% | 23 |
| Anubis | 25% | 6 | 42% | 12 |
| Inferno | 17% | 10 | 33% | 15 |
| Nuke | 47% | 15 | 54% | 13 |
| Ancient | 37% | 19 | 44% | 9 |
Match Prediction
The match promises to be tight: both teams have roughly equal levels and comparable win rates on key maps. SAW appears slightly more stable overall and has an advantage in experience on Nuke, but MIBR showed grit against NAVI, suggesting they will put up a strong fight.
Much will depend on the form of the team leaders on match day, but overall, SAW seems slightly more favorable. Their experience in bo3 series at a higher level and a strong map for picking could play a key role.
Prediction: SAW wins 2-1
IEM Melbourne 2025 takes place from April 21 to 27. The entire tournament is held in Melbourne, Australia, at the Rod Laver Arena. Participants are competing for a prize pool of $300,000. You can follow the results and progress of the tournament through this link.
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