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Aurora vs NRG Match Prediction and Analysis - IEM Dallas 2025 Group B
On May 20, 2025, at 20:30 UTC, Aurora will face off against NRG in the IEM Dallas 2025 Group B lower bracket. This best-of-3 series is part of the playoff stage of the prestigious tournament. We have analyzed the statistics and the current form of the teams to make a prediction for the match outcome. Match Details.
Current form of the teams
Aurora, currently ranked 7th in the world according to the world rankings, has shown a commendable performance recently. With an overall win rate of 60%, their form over the last year stands at 53%, improving to 54% over the past six months, and 56% in the recent month. Despite a loss against HEROIC in their last match at the Intel Extreme Masters Dallas 2025, Aurora secured a 3rd place finish at the PGL Astana 2025, earning $75,000. Their recent matches include victories against FURIA and The MongolZ, alongside losses to Astralis and HEROIC. Aurora’s recent half-year earnings amount to $122,250, placing them 15th in earnings rankings.
NRG, ranked 37th globally, has shown a strong overall win rate of 70%, with a consistent performance over the last year at 71%, and even better in the last six months at 74%. Their recent month win rate peaks at 77%. However, they faced a setback in their most recent match, losing to Falcons at the Intel Extreme Masters Dallas 2025. NRG also recently finished as runners-up in the Thunderpick World Championship 2025: North American Series 1, earning $5,000. Their victories against BLUEJAYS and Moneyball, along with a grand final win over Nouns in the ESL Challenger League Season 49, highlight their potential. NRG’s earnings over the past half year total $59,500, ranking them 35th in earnings.
Teams’ Map Pool
The map veto for this matchup is expected to follow a strategic pattern. Aurora will likely first ban Dust2, while NRG is expected to ban Ancient. Aurora’s first pick is anticipated to be Mirage, leveraging their 62% win rate on this map over the last six months. NRG is expected to counter with Train, where they hold a strong 71% win rate. The bans will continue with Aurora removing Inferno and NRG banning Nuke, leading to Anubis as the decider map. Historical data shows Aurora’s preference for Mirage and NRG’s strength on Train, making these logical choices for their first picks.
| Map | Aurora Winrate | M | B | Last 5 Matches (Aurora) | NRG Winrate | M | B | Last 5 Matches (NRG) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dust II | 50% | 10 | 41 | W, L, L, W, W | 87% | 30 | 7 | W, W, W, W, L |
| Inferno | 52% | 21 | 15 | L, L, W, L, W | 75% | 12 | 3 | L, L, L, W, W |
| Train | 55% | 33 | 5 | L, L, L, L, FB | 71% | 17 | 9 | W, W, W, W, L |
| Anubis | 56% | 25 | 32 | L, W, W, W, L | 65% | 17 | 21 | FB, W, L, W, W |
| Ancient | 42% | 33 | 22 | FB, FB, FB, FB, FB | 50% | 4 | 31 | FB, FB, FB, FB, FB |
| Mirage | 64% | 44 | 2 | W, W, W, W, W | 59% | 32 | 8 | W, W, L, W, L |
| Nuke | 55% | 31 | 9 | W, W, L, W, L | 54% | 13 | 24 | W, L, L, W, L |
Match Prediction
Based on current form and map statistics, Aurora is favored to win this matchup with a predicted scoreline of 2:1. Aurora’s higher win probability of 75% reflects their superior ranking and recent performances in top-tier tournaments. The map pool analysis suggests that Aurora’s strength on Mirage and NRG’s potential on Train will make for a competitive series, with Anubis as the decider likely tilting in Aurora’s favor due to their overall stronger form.
Prediction: Aurora 2:0 NRG
Odds are taken from Stake and are current at the time of publication.
Intel Extreme Masters Dallas 2025 takes place from May 19 to May 25 in the United States, featuring a prize pool of $1,000,000. You can follow the news, schedule, and results of the tournament via the link.
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