On May 12th, 2025, at 17:00 CEST, Astralis will face off against Spirit in a best-of-3 series at the PGL Astana 2025 Group Stage. This match promises to be an intriguing contest as both teams look to assert their dominance early in the tournament. We have analyzed the statistics and the current form of the teams to make a prediction for the match outcome.
Current form of the teams
Astralis, currently ranked 16th in the world (source), comes into this match with a two-game win streak. Their overall win rate stands at 57%, with a recent improvement to 63% over the past month. Astralis has earned $186,625 in the last six months, placing them 11th in earnings among their peers. In their recent matches, Astralis secured victories against paiN Gaming and ODDIK at the PGL Astana 2025. However, they faced a setback against B8 in the BLAST.tv Austin Major 2025: European Regional Qualifier. Their performance in the BLAST.tv Austin Major concluded with a 7th place finish.
On the other hand, Spirit is ranked 4th globally (source) and boasts a strong win rate of 76% over the past six months. They have amassed an impressive $1,073,125 in earnings, placing them at the top of the earnings leaderboard. Spirit’s recent form includes dominant victories over Ninjas in Pyjamas and GamerLegion at the PGL Astana 2025. Despite a loss to Vitality in the BLAST Rivals Spring 2025 semifinals, Spirit secured a 3-4th place finish in the tournament.
Teams’ Map Pool
The map veto prediction for this encounter suggests Astralis will ban Anubis first, while Spirit will counter by banning Inferno. Astralis is expected to pick Ancient, a map where they have a 60% win rate, while Spirit is likely to choose Dust2, where they boast an impressive 87% win rate. The bans will continue with Astralis removing Nuke and Spirit banning Train, leaving Mirage as the potential decider map. This veto scenario plays to Spirit’s strengths, given their higher win rates on Dust2 and Mirage compared to Astralis.
| Map | Astralis Winrate | M | B | Last 5 Matches (Astralis) | Spirit Winrate | M | B | Last 5 Matches (Spirit) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anubis | 0% | 0 | 38 | FB, FB, FB, FB, FB | 67% | 15 | 9 | W, W, L, W, W |
| Inferno | 62% | 26 | 0 | L, L, W, W, W | 0% | 0 | 40 | FB, FB, FB, FB, FB |
| Dust II | 33% | 12 | 14 | L, L, L, W, L | 87% | 23 | 2 | W, W, W, W, W |
| Train | 57% | 7 | 8 | W, L, L, W, W | 100% | 4 | 10 | W, W, W, W, W |
| Mirage | 33% | 18 | 10 | L, L, W, L, W | 69% | 16 | 7 | L, W, W, W, W |
| Nuke | 56% | 18 | 3 | L, W, L, W, W | 65% | 20 | 7 | L, L, W, W, W |
| Ancient | 60% | 20 | 6 | L, L, W, L, L | 58% | 12 | 5 | W, W, W, L, W |
Head-to-Head
In their past five encounters, Spirit has had the upper hand, winning four out of five matches against Astralis. Their most recent meeting on February 2, 2025, saw Spirit secure a convincing 2-0 victory over Astralis. Historically, Spirit has shown a preference for picking Dust2, where they have consistently outperformed Astralis. Meanwhile, Astralis has struggled to find an effective map strategy against Spirit’s versatile playstyle.
Prediction
Given Spirit’s superior form and historical dominance over Astralis, they are favored to win this matchup. The predicted scoreline of 2-1 in favor of Spirit reflects their strong map pool and recent performances. While Astralis has the potential to take a map, likely Ancient, Spirit’s consistency and strategic depth should see them through to victory.
Prediction: Astralis 1:2 Spirit
Odds are taken from Stake and are current at the time of publication.
PGL Astana 2025 takes place from May 10 to May 18 in Kazakhstan, featuring a prize pool of $625,000. You can follow the news, schedule, and results of the tournament via the link.
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