NAVI continues to play with Viktor sdy Orudzhev after winning the spring BLAST. This time the team will defend the IEM Cologne title, and MOUZ will be the first step to achieving this goal. But, is the situation of the mice so hopeless?

The Shape

Since the arrival of sdy, NAVI experienced real problems only with OG, and they made the Ukrainian club sweat as it should, even if they also played with a replacement in the sniper slot. So, for now, degster is a sniper of the team.

MOUZ, on the other hand, had problems with most of the tier 1 teams (Heroic, NIP, Vitality, ENCE) and some tier 2 teams, including Sprout, Eternal Fire, not to mention the close BO1 series with PaiN Gaming.

The difference in the average rating (6.5 for NAVI versus 5.9 for MOUZ) clearly illustrates Natus Vincere's advantage in terms of firepower.

Maps

NAVI has previously demonstrated a flexible map pool, and with the genius of Andrey B1ad3 Gorodensky, in the case of MOUZ, we can see any maps (except, of course, Vertigo). So even a 86% win rate on Ancient for the mice may not scare NAVI.

Let's assume that the "yellow-blacks" want to play from their confident cards rather than to experiment and surprise opponents at the picks. Then we will most likely see Overpass, Mirage, and a deader in the form of Nuke or Inferno. Dust 2 is not expected due to a guaranteed ban from MOUZ in the first stage.

Conclusion

The sum of the factors points to a very likely quick 2:0 for NAVI. One of the cards can be given away if the captain Denis electronic Sharipov has a drawdown or if the "yellow-blacks" deliberately choose weaker cards to outwit the Europeans.

You can view detailed pre-match statistics here.