On March 23rd at 19:30 CET, The MongolZ will face off against Spirit in a best-of-3 series as part of the BLAST Open Spring 2026 Group B. The match will determine who takes the final spot from Group B in the playoff stage. We have analyzed the statistics and the current form of the teams to make a prediction for the match outcome. Match details can be found here.
Current form of the teams
The MongolZ enter this matchup ranked 9th in the world per the official Valve rankings, riding a one-series winstreak after sweeping Liquid 2–0 on March 22nd in the lower bracket. Their last five show a competitive stretch against elite opposition: 2–0 vs Liquid (rank 23), 0–2 vs Vitality (rank 1), 2–0 vs MOUZ (rank 3), 0–2 vs Natus Vincere (rank 8) at ESL Pro League S23 Playoffs where they finished 5–8th, and 2–1 vs 3DMAX. Formally, their win rates read as follows: overall 63%, last 12 months 59%, last 6 months 51%, and last month 63%. Over the last half-year, they have earned $177,750, placing 11th by prize earnings among top teams.
Spirit arrive as the higher seed and are currently 8th in the world in the Valve rankings, also on a one-series winstreak after a clean 2–0 over 9z on March 22nd. Their last five include a 0–2 loss to PARIVISION (rank 4), 2–0 vs Liquid, 0–2 vs Astralis in the ESL Pro League S23 quarterfinal for a 5–8th finish, and 2–0 vs G2. Statistically they have been the steadier side: overall 66%, last 12 months 73%, last 6 months 68%, and last month 71%. Their recent half-year earnings total $255,000, 8th among their peers.
Teams’ Map Pool
The predicted map veto scenario suggests that The MongolZ will first ban Anubis, while Spirit will ban Inferno. The MongolZ are expected to pick Mirage. Spirit should answer with Dust2, where they hold a 74% win rate over the last 6 months across 19 maps, a clear power pick. Following this, The MongolZ will likely ban Overpass, and Spirit will ban Nuke, leaving Ancient as the decider.
Head-to-Head Encounters
Across their last five meetings since September 2024, Spirit lead the series 4–1. Spirit claimed 2–0 wins on March 9th, 2025 and November 13th, 2025, and took a 3–0 in the August 17th, 2025 final, while The MongolZ found a 2–1 upset on November 5th, 2025. The aggregate aligns with the teams’ internal metrics: The MongolZ’s head-to-head win rate stands at 29%, while Spirit’s sits at 71%. A recurring pattern has been Spirit’s ability to avoid extended series by closing two-map sets, typically off superior mid-round structure and comfort picks.
Match Prediction
Given the current form and historical data, Spirit hold the more reliable baseline. Their last 6 months (68%) and last month (71%) exceed The MongolZ’s 51% and 63% respectively, and the head-to-head strongly favors Spirit. The predicted veto also tilts their way: a Dust2 pick at a 74% win rate in the last 6 months should pressure The MongolZ, whose Dust2 sits at 40% across 15 maps. The MongolZ can strike back if their Mirage pick lands or if the match reaches Ancient, where they have a slight statistical edge, and their recent 2–0s over MOUZ and Liquid show they can spike against teams without coach. However, across most scenarios Spirit’s stability and map leverage provide the better path to two maps.
Prediction: The MongolZ 1:2 Spirit
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