On March 27th at 14:00 UTC, Aurora will face off against The MongolZ in a best-of-3 series as part of the BLAST Open Spring 2026 Playoffs. We have analyzed the statistics and the current form of the teams to make a prediction for the match outcome. Match details can be found here.
Current form of the teams
Aurora enter the playoffs in solid shape and sit 7th in the world rankings, with their profile comparable to upper-tier contenders on the Valve world list. Form-wise, their win rate over the last month stands at 70%, compared to 55% across the last six months and 57% over the last year (overall long-term: 59%). Their recent series trajectory at this event includes a 2-1 upset over FaZe on March 18th, a clean 2-0 versus FURIA on March 20th, and a 0-2 upper final loss to NAVI on March 23rd. Looking just beyond this event, Aurora finished 2nd at ESL Pro League Season 23 on March 15th, falling 1-3 to NAVI in the grand final after beating Astralis 2-1 in the semifinal.
The MongolZ arrive ranked 9th globally and are trending upwards after a productive lower-bracket run in groups. Their win rate sits at 67% over the last month, 53% across the last six months, and 60% over the last year (overall long-term: 63%). In this tournament, they swept MOUZ 2-0 on March 19th, lost 0-2 to Vitality on March 21st, then rebounded with convincing 2-0 wins over Liquid on March 22nd and Spirit on March 23rd, giving them a current winstreak of two. In the previous LAN, they exited EPL S23 in the quarterfinals (0-2 vs NAVI). Over the last six months, The MongolZ have earned $177,750, placing 11th by prize money in that period.
Teams’ Map Pool
The predicted map veto scenario suggests that Aurora will first ban Ancient, while The MongolZ will ban Inferno. Aurora are expected to pick Train, a map where they have a 56% win rate over the last six months across 9 maps, while The MongolZ might opt for Mirage, where they have a 57% win rate in the last six months over 23 maps. Following this, Aurora will likely ban Nuke, The MongolZ will ban Anubis, leaving Dust2 as the decider.
From a stylistic perspective, there are a few key nuances. Aurora’s strongest statistical edge is Anubis at 75% over 8 maps in the last six months, which explains why The MongolZ often remove it early and is consistent with the predicted second ban. Mirage is The MongolZ’s comfort ground with a 50% pick rate and solid win rate, and it’s a logical selection into Aurora, who have only a 42% win rate on Mirage over 24 maps in the last six months. Train is a map Aurora are happy to pick; The MongolZ typically avoid it with a very high overall ban rate, so Aurora’s pick materializes only if Train slips past the second ban phase. If the series reaches Dust2, Aurora carry a clear statistical advantage at 67% over 24 maps in the last six months against The MongolZ’s 40% over 15 maps.
Head-to-Head Encounters
Historically, this matchup has favored The MongolZ. Across recent meetings, The MongolZ hold roughly a 78% series win rate to Aurora’s 22%. The last five clashes underscore the trend: a 2-0 for The MongolZ on March 7th, 2026; a 2-1 for The MongolZ on October 19th, 2025; and earlier in 2025, decisive sweeps including a 3-0 in late August. The pattern has been one of The MongolZ imposing pace early and denying Aurora their preferred rhythm.
Match Prediction
Given the current form and historical data, this looks competitive across three maps. Aurora’s recent run against elite opposition and their late-series edges, particularly on decider-prone maps like Dust2, give them a tangible path to close out tight sets. The MongolZ hold the psychological and stylistic H2H edge and will likely press advantages on Mirage, but their weaker numbers on Dust2 and the necessity to respect Anubis in vetoes compress their margins if the series goes long. Our pre-match projection leans toward Aurora due to their sturdier map spread in this specific veto and stronger month-long form, while still acknowledging The MongolZ’s ability to pressure early.
Prediction: Aurora 2:1 The MongolZ
Comments1