On May 12, 2025, at 14:00 CEST, The MongolZ will face off against Natus Vincere in a best-of-3 match in the PGL Astana 2025 Group Stage. This tournament is currently underway in Kazakhstan and boasts a prize pool of $625,000. We have analyzed the statistics and the current form of the teams to make a prediction for the match outcome. View Match Details
Current form of the teams
The MongolZ, currently ranked 6th in the world (source), have shown impressive form with a win streak of two matches. Their recent performances include victories against MIBR and FURIA in the ongoing PGL Astana 2025. The MongolZ managed to secure a 2-0 win over MIBR and a 2-1 victory against FURIA. In the previous Intel Extreme Masters Melbourne 2025, they reached the semifinals, finishing 3rd-4th and earning $25,000. Over the last six months, The MongolZ have earned $263,125, ranking 7th in earnings among their peers. Their win rate over the past month stands at 71%, indicating a strong performance trend.
Natus Vincere, ranked 11th globally (source), also come into this match with a two-match win streak. They have recently defeated BIG and M80 in the PGL Astana 2025, both with a scoreline of 2-0. Their performance in the Intel Extreme Masters Melbourne 2025 was less stellar, finishing 7th-8th with earnings of $7,000. Over the last six months, Natus Vincere earned $167,500, placing them 12th in earnings. Their recent month win rate is 67%, showcasing a consistent performance level.
Teams’ Map Pool
The map veto for this matchup is predicted to proceed with The MongolZ banning Train first, followed by Natus Vincere banning Ancient. The MongolZ are expected to pick Inferno, a map where they have a 75% win rate over the last six months. Natus Vincere is likely to pick Mirage, a map they have performed well on with a 71% win rate. The MongolZ will then ban Nuke, and Natus Vincere will ban Anubis, leaving Dust2 as the decider map. Dust2 has been a battleground with mixed results for both teams.
| Map | The MongolZ Winrate | M | B | Last 5 Matches (MongolZ) | Natus Vincere Winrate | M | B | Last 5 Matches (NaVi) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Train | 0% | 0 | 27 | FB, FB, FB, FB, FB | 100% | 1 | 13 | FB, FB, W, W, L |
| Nuke | 33% | 9 | 18 | W, L, W, L, L | 71% | 7 | 7 | L, W, L, FB, FB |
| Anubis | 57% | 14 | 7 | L, W, L, L, W | 25% | 4 | 14 | L, L, L, L, L |
| Dust II | 50% | 10 | 14 | W, L, L, W, L | 36% | 11 | 3 | L, L, L, FB, W |
| Inferno | 75% | 12 | 3 | W, L, W, W, L | 64% | 14 | 5 | L, W, W, L, W |
| Ancient | 67% | 21 | 0 | L, L, W, L, L | 58% | 12 | 5 | L, FB, FB, W, W |
| Mirage | 64% | 22 | 1 | W, W, W, W, L | 71% | 21 | 1 | W, W, L, W, W |
Head-to-Head
In their last five encounters, Natus Vincere has been the dominant force, winning four out of five matches against The MongolZ. Their most recent clash on March 22, 2025, ended with Natus Vincere securing a 2-1 victory. However, The MongolZ managed to take a win on March 14, 2025, with a 2-0 scoreline, showing that they can indeed challenge Natus Vincere when it matters. Historically, Natus Vincere has an 80% win rate against The MongolZ, which gives them a psychological edge going into this match.
Prediction
Based on current form, map statistics, and historical head-to-head data, Natus Vincere is favored to win this match with a predicted scoreline of 2-1. Their superior head-to-head record and consistent performance across various maps give them the edge. While The MongolZ have shown resilience and the ability to pull off upsets, Natus Vincere’s experience and tactical prowess are likely to see them through to victory.
Prediction: The MongolZ 1:2 Natus Vincere
Odds are taken from Stake and are current at the time of publication.
PGL Astana 2025 takes place from May 10 to May 18 in Kazakhstan, featuring a prize pool of $625,000. You can follow the news, schedule, and results of the tournament via the link.
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