On May 16, 2025, at 05:00 UTC, The MongolZ will face off against Aurora in a best-of-3 series during the PGL Astana 2025 Playoffs. This clash will be a crucial part of the tournament, hosted in Kazakhstan, with a significant prize pool of $625,000. We have analyzed the statistics and the current form of the teams to make a prediction for the match outcome. Watch the match here.
Current form of the teams
The MongolZ, ranked 6th globally (source), have been on an impressive run recently. They boast a three-match win streak, with a recent monthly win rate of 75%. Over the last six months, they have earned $263,125, placing them 7th in earnings among competitive teams. In their recent matches, The MongolZ defeated Natus Vincere 2-0, MIBR 2-0, and FURIA 2-1, all during the PGL Astana 2025 Group Stage. Their only recent loss came against Vitality in the semifinals of the Intel Extreme Masters Melbourne 2025, where they finished 3-4th, earning $25,000. Natus Vincere, MIBR, FURIA, Vitality, and Liquid were among their recent opponents.
Aurora, ranked 7th globally (source), have had a mixed performance recently. They hold a one-match win streak and a recent monthly win rate of 60%. Over the past six months, Aurora earned $47,250, ranking them 36th in earnings. Their recent matches include a victory against ODDIK 2-0 and a win over Ninjas in Pyjamas 2-1. However, they suffered losses to Natus Vincere 0-2 and BIG 1-2 during the same tournament. ODDIK, Natus Vincere, Ninjas in Pyjamas, HOTU, and BIG were their recent adversaries.
Teams’ Map Pool
The predicted map veto for this series suggests The MongolZ will first ban Train, a map they rarely play, while Aurora will ban Ancient. The MongolZ are likely to pick Mirage, a map where they have a solid 68% win rate over the last six months. Aurora might opt for Anubis, where they have a decent 59% win rate. The MongolZ will likely ban Nuke, while Aurora might ban Inferno, leaving Dust2 as the decider map. This scenario aligns with both teams’ historical map preferences and bans.
| Map | The MongolZ Winrate | M | B | Last 5 Matches (The MongolZ) | Aurora Winrate | M | B | Last 5 Matches (Aurora) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Train | 0% | 0 | 27 | FB, FB, FB, FB | 56% | 32 | 3 | W, L, L, L, L |
| Inferno | 77% | 13 | 3 | L, W, W, W, W | 50% | 20 | 13 | L, L, L, W, L |
| Nuke | 33% | 9 | 18 | W, L, W, L, L | 57% | 30 | 8 | W, W, W, L, W |
| Ancient | 63% | 19 | 0 | L, L, W, W, W | 42% | 33 | 19 | FB, FB, FB, FB |
| Dust II | 50% | 10 | 12 | W, L, L, L, W | 38% | 8 | 41 | FB, W, L, L, W |
| Mirage | 68% | 22 | 1 | L, L, W, W, W | 63% | 41 | 2 | W, W, W, W, W |
| Anubis | 54% | 13 | 6 | W, L, L, L, W | 59% | 22 | 32 | W, W, L, W, W |
Match Prediction
Considering the current form, map pool strengths, and past head-to-head results, The MongolZ are favored to win this series 2-0. Their impressive win rates across various maps and recent performances in the PGL Astana 2025 suggest they have the upper hand. While Aurora is a formidable opponent, The MongolZ’s strategic depth and consistency make them the likely victors in this matchup.
Prediction: The MongolZ 2:0 Aurora
Odds are taken from Stake and are current at the time of publication.
PGL Astana 2025 takes place from May 10 to May 18 in Kazakhstan, featuring a prize pool of $625,000. You can follow the news, schedule, and results of the tournament via the link.
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