On May 10, 2025, at 14:00 UTC, paiN will face HOTU in the PGL Astana 2025 Group Stage. This match, part of the Swiss format, is set to be a best-of-3 series. We have analyzed the statistics and the current form of the teams to make a prediction for the match outcome. For more details, visit the match page.
Current form of the teams
paiN, currently ranked 17th globally, has been struggling to find their form recently. Over the last six months, they have accumulated earnings of $132,750, placing them 15th in earnings rankings. However, their recent performances have been less than stellar, with a 0% win rate in the past month and a 44% win rate in the past half-year. Their current win streak is nonexistent, having lost their last five matches. These losses include a close 1-2 defeat to MOUZ, who are ranked 2nd in the world, and a 0-2 loss against Wildcard, ranked 27th. Their recent tournament outings at the BLAST Rivals Spring 2025 and Intel Extreme Masters Melbourne 2025 saw them finish in 7-8th and 13-16th places, respectively.
HOTU, ranked 54th, comes into this match with a contrasting form. They are riding high on a six-match win streak. Over the past half-year, HOTU has demonstrated a commendable 81% win rate. Their recent victories include a dominant 2-0 win against JiJieHao in the PGL Astana 2025: Asian Qualifier, securing a first-place finish and qualification for the main event. Their overall win rate stands at 56%, reflecting their strong performance in the qualifiers.
Teams Map Pool
The map veto process for this match is expected to be strategic, with paiN likely to first ban Ancient, a map they have largely avoided, while HOTU will likely ban Inferno, a map they consistently veto. paiN might opt to first pick Anubis, despite their lower win rate on this map, while HOTU is expected to pick Mirage, where they have shown strength. The decider map, if needed, is anticipated to be Nuke, a map both teams have played with varying success.
| Map | paiN Winrate | M | B | Last 5 Matches (paiN) | HOTU Winrate | M | B | Last 5 Matches (HOTU) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Train | 0% | 5 | 16 | L, L, L, L, L | 50% | 2 | 0 | W, L, -, -, - |
| Nuke | 56% | 16 | 4 | W, W, W, L, L | 100% | 5 | 0 | W, W, L, W, W |
| Anubis | 29% | 7 | 11 | FB, FB, FB, FB, FB | 67% | 6 | 1 | W, W, L, ●, ● |
| Inferno | 25% | 20 | 5 | L, L, L, L, W | 0% | 0 | 3 | FB, FB, FB, -, - |
| Ancient | 100% | 1 | 31 | FB, FB, FB, FB, FB | 77% | 13 | 0 | W, W, W, W, W |
| Mirage | 59% | 17 | 6 | L, L, L, W, L | 80% | 5 | 0 | W, W, L, ●, ● |
| Dust II | 44% | 18 | 4 | W, L, W, L, L | 60% | 5 | 0 | W, W, L, W, W |
Prediction
Based on current form and map statistics, HOTU is slightly favored to win this match with a predicted score of 2-1. paiN will be playing with a stand-in, which could affect their synergy and in-game communication. While paiN may be able to take a map, HOTU’s more stable lineup and well-rounded map pool give them the edge to close out the series.
Prediction: paiN 1:2 HOTU
Odds are taken from Stake and are current at the time of publication.
PGL Astana 2025 takes place from May 10 to May 18 in Kazakhstan, featuring a prize pool of $625,000. You can follow the news, schedule, and results of the tournament via the link.
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