On May 12, 2025, at 11:00 CEST, Ninjas in Pyjamas will face off against Aurora in the PGL Astana 2025 Group Stage. This best-of-3 series promises to be an intriguing contest as both teams aim to progress further in the tournament. We have analyzed the statistics and the current form of the teams to make a prediction for the match outcome. You can follow the match here.
Current form of the teams
Ninjas in Pyjamas, currently ranked 44th in the world, have shown a mixed bag of performances recently. With an overall win rate of 51% and a 67% win rate in the last month, they have demonstrated potential but also inconsistency. Their recent form includes a victory against Virtus.pro and a loss to Spirit in the ongoing PGL Astana 2025. Over the last six months, they have earned $1,500, ranking them 143rd in earnings. Their recent tournament victory at Fragadelphia x LVL UP EXPO 2025, where they claimed the first place, highlights their capability to perform under pressure. However, they will need to overcome their current winless streak to gain momentum in this matchup.
Aurora, on the other hand, holds a 7th place in the world rankings and have a recent win streak of one match. Their overall win rate stands at 60%, showcasing their strength and consistency. Aurora’s recent performance includes a win over HOTU and a narrow defeat to BIG in the same tournament. Their earnings in the past six months amount to $47,250, placing them 36th in terms of financial success. Aurora’s recent participation in high-tier tournaments like PGL Bucharest 2025 has further solidified their standing as a formidable opponent.
Teams’ Map Pool
In the upcoming match, the map veto process is expected to unfold as follows: Ninjas in Pyjamas will likely ban Mirage first, while Aurora will ban Ancient. Ninjas in Pyjamas are anticipated to pick Train, and Aurora might choose Anubis. The remaining bans could see Ninjas in Pyjamas removing Inferno and Aurora banning Nuke, leaving Dust2 as the decider. Historical data indicates that Ninjas in Pyjamas have a strong win rate on Train (67%) and Aurora has shown proficiency on Anubis (55%).
| Map | Ninjas in Pyjamas Winrate | M | B | Last 5 Matches (NiP) | Aurora Winrate | M | B | Last 5 Matches (Aurora) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inferno | 86% | 7 | 18 | L, W, W, W, W | 50% | 18 | 13 | L, L, L, L, L |
| Ancient | 58% | 24 | 2 | W, W, L, W, W | 42% | 33 | 16 | FB, FB, FB, FB, FB |
| Dust II | 44% | 16 | 12 | W, W, W, W, L | 29% | 7 | 41 | FB, FB, FB, L, L |
| Mirage | 50% | 14 | 12 | L, L, FB, FB, FB | 63% | 41 | 1 | L, W, W, W, W |
| Nuke | 67% | 21 | 4 | W, L, L, W, W | 57% | 30 | 6 | W, W, W, W, L |
| Anubis | 47% | 15 | 7 | L, L, W, W, W | 55% | 20 | 32 | W, W, W, W, W |
| Train | 67% | 15 | 5 | W, W, L, W, W | 60% | 30 | 3 | W, W, W, W, W |
Head-to-Head
Historically, Aurora has had the upper hand against Ninjas in Pyjamas, winning four out of their last five encounters. Their last meeting in February 2025 saw Aurora triumphing 2-1. Aurora’s strong map performance, especially on maps like Mirage and Anubis, has been a decisive factor in their victories. Ninjas in Pyjamas will need to strategize effectively to counter these strengths.
Prediction
Given the teams’ current forms, win rates, and head-to-head history, Aurora appears to have a slight edge over Ninjas in Pyjamas. With a higher world ranking and a better track record in recent matches, Aurora is likely to secure a 2-0 victory. However, if Ninjas in Pyjamas can leverage their strengths on Train and avoid mistakes on other maps, they might have a chance to challenge Aurora’s dominance.
Prediction: Ninjas in Pyjamas 0:2 Aurora
Odds are taken from Stake and are current at the time of publication.
PGL Astana 2025 takes place from May 10 to May 18 in Kazakhstan, featuring a prize pool of $625,000. You can follow the news, schedule, and results of the tournament via the link.
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