In the group stage of IEM Melbourne 2025, we are set to witness a match between the inconsistent NAVI and the enigmatic MIBR. Both teams have been absent from the scene for some time, focusing on preparation — it remains to be seen whether this will yield the desired results. In this article, we'll examine the current form of the teams, analyze the potential map pool, and make a prediction for the match outcome.
Current Form of the Teams
NAVI approaches the tournament following a mixed performance at BLAST Open Spring 2025. The team managed to get revenge on MongolZ but fell to Eternal Fire in the decisive match for seeding. Since then, the Ukrainian team has gone dark — no official matches, just bootcamping and training. Such a break can either strengthen or disrupt their game rhythm.
| Date | Team | Score | Opponent | Series Result | Map Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28 | Natus Vincere | 0 - 2 | Spirit | 2 | 0 - 2 |
| Mar 24 | Natus Vincere | 0 - 2 | Eternal Fire | 2 | 1 - 2 |
| Mar 22 | Natus Vincere | 2 - 1 | The MongolZ | 2 | 1 - 2 |
| Mar 20 | Natus Vincere | 2 - 0 | FURIA | 1 | 2 - 0 |
| Mar 14 | Natus Vincere | 0 - 2 | The MongolZ | 1 | 2 - 1 |
The situation with MIBR is even less clear. The Brazilians haven't played officially since the end of ESL Pro League Season 21, where they performed poorly — finishing 15th–16th. After the setback, the team took a break to prepare for IEM Melbourne. Whether their preparation was effective will be revealed in the first game.
| Date | Team | Score | Opponent | Series Result | Map Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 09 | MIBR | 1 - 2 | FURIA | 2 | 0 - 2 |
| Mar 08 | MIBR | 0 - 2 | Eternal Fire | 2 | 0 - 2 |
| Mar 07 | MIBR | 1 - 2 | Vitality | 2 | 0 - 2 |
| Mar 04 | MIBR | 2 - 0 | TYLOO | 1 | 2 - 0 |
| Mar 03 | MIBR | 2 - 0 | FURIA | 2 | 0 - 2 |
Map Pool
MIBR will definitely remove Dust II, a map they have avoided for 40 matches in a row. NAVI, despite a recent experiment on Train, might ban it again — the instability and risk in official matches are still too high.
NAVI might choose Ancient — a map where they play confidently (68% win rate). However, they might opt for Dust II if MIBR decides to take a risk and not ban it. MIBR will likely pick Nuke as their choice, where they perform consistently (60% win rate).
| Map | Natus Vincere Winrate | M | B | Last 5 Matches (NaVi) | MIBR Winrate | M | B | Last 5 Matches (MIBR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Train | 100% | 1 | 11 | FB, FB, FB, W, FB | 0% | 2 | 5 | L, L |
| Dust II | 33% | 9 | 1 | L, L, W, L, L | 0% | 0 | 23 | FB, FB, FB, FB, FB |
| Mirage | 29% | 18 | 0 | W, L, W, L, L | 38% | 13 | 7 | W, L, W, W, L |
| Inferno | 14% | 10 | 5 | W, L, FB, L, L | 36% | 14 | 9 | L, W, L, L, W |
| Nuke | 13% | 8 | 7 | L, W, L, L, FB | 50% | 14 | 2 | W, L, L, W, W |
| Ancient | 11% | 9 | 5 | L, W, L, FB, FB | 44% | 9 | 5 | W, L, W, W, L |
| Anubis | 8% | 12 | 3 | W, L, W, L, L | 42% | 12 | 1 | W, W, L, W, W |
Match Prediction
If NAVI has used their training time effectively, they should dominate this match. Their peak form is far from ideal, but their individual skill and tactical flexibility remain higher than MIBR's. MIBR has a chance to compete on Nuke, but overall their performance is questionable.
Prediction: NAVI wins 2-0
IEM Melbourne 2025 takes place from April 21 to 27. The entire tournament is held in Melbourne, Australia, at the Rod Laver Arena. Participants are competing for a prize pool of $300,000. You can follow the results and progress of the tournament at this link.
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