The upcoming face-off between Natus Vincere and M80 is set to take place on May 10, 2025, at 11:00 AM UTC. This best-of-3 match is part of the PGL Astana 2025 Group Stage, a prestigious tournament held in Kazakhstan. We have analyzed the statistics and the current form of the teams to make a prediction for the match outcome. Match Details
Current form of the teams
Natus Vincere, currently ranked 11th in the world (source), has shown a mixed form recently. Their overall win rate is 69%, with a slight decline to 60% in the recent half-year. In the past month, their win rate has dropped to 50%, reflecting some inconsistency. Despite this, they have maintained a competitive edge in top-tier tournaments, earning $167,500 over the last six months, placing them 12th in earnings rankings.
M80, ranked 34th globally, comes into this match with a strong momentum, boasting a six-match winning streak. Their overall win rate stands at 68%, with a slight improvement to 69% over the past year. Their recent half-year performance shows a win rate of 61%. Despite not being as financially successful as their opponents, with earnings of $21,500 and a 59th place in earnings rankings, M80 has demonstrated their potential by qualifying for PGL Astana 2025 through the North American Qualifier, where they secured first place.
Teams’ Map Pool
The map veto process for this match is expected to unfold with Natus Vincere banning Ancient and M80 banning Nuke. Natus Vincere is likely to pick Inferno as their first map, leveraging their 62% win rate on this map over the past six months. M80 is anticipated to counter with Anubis, where they hold a 50% win rate. The final map, if needed, will be Mirage, a map both teams have played frequently.
| Map | Natus Vincere Winrate | M | B | Last 5 Matches (NaVi) | M80 Winrate | M | B | Last 5 Matches (M80) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuke | 71% | 7 | 7 | L, W, L, FB, FB | 0% | 0 | 21 | FB, FB, FB, FB, FB |
| Train | 100% | 1 | 13 | FB, FB, FB, FB, FB | 33% | 6 | 4 | L, W, L, L, W |
| Dust II | 30% | 10 | 3 | W, W, L, L, FB | 69% | 13 | 3 | ●, W, W, W, W |
| Anubis | 25% | 4 | 14 | L, L, L, W, L | 50% | 14 | 0 | W, L, L, W, L |
| Ancient | 58% | 12 | 5 | FB, FB, L, W, W | 77% | 13 | 4 | W, W, L, W, W |
| Mirage | 68% | 19 | 1 | W, W, L, FB, FB | 63% | 8 | 9 | W, L, W, L, L |
| Inferno | 62% | 13 | 5 | L, W, L, W, W | 60% | 10 | 5 | L, W, W, L, W |
Prediction
Considering the current form and historical data, Natus Vincere is favored to win this match with an 80% probability. Their depth in map pool and experience in high-stakes matches give them a significant advantage. M80, while on a winning streak, may find it challenging to overcome Natus Vincere’s strategic prowess and map control. The predicted scoreline is a 2:0 victory for Natus Vincere.
Prediction: Natus Vincere 2:0 M80
Odds are taken from Stake and are current at the time of publication.
PGL Astana 2025 takes place from May 10 to May 18 in Kazakhstan, featuring a prize pool of $625,000. You can follow the news, schedule, and results of the tournament via the link.
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