The upcoming match between Natus Vincere and BIG is set to take place on May 11, 2025, at 11:00 GMT. This clash is part of the PGL Astana 2025 Group Stage, a tournament currently held in Kazakhstan, featuring a best-of-3 format. We have analyzed the statistics and the current form of the teams to make a prediction for the match outcome. For more details, visit the match page.
Current form of the teams
Natus Vincere, currently ranked 11th in the world (source), has shown a consistent performance with a 69% overall win rate. Their recent form over the past year reflects a 68% win rate, slightly decreasing to 61% over the last six months. In recent months, their win rate has been 60%. The team has earned $167,500 over the last six months, placing them 12th in earnings compared to other teams. In their recent matches, Natus Vincere has managed to secure a win against M80 in the PGL Astana 2025, showcasing their capability in the current tournament. However, they faced a tough competition at the Intel Extreme Masters Melbourne 2025, finishing 7-8th with a mixed performance, including a loss to Liquid and a win against FlyQuest.
On the other hand, BIG is ranked 23rd globally (source) and has a 53% overall win rate. Their performance over the past six months has seen a slight improvement, with a win rate of 55%. Despite a 50% win rate in the recent month, BIG has shown resilience by securing second place at the MESA Nomadic Masters: Spring 2025, earning $139,750 over the last six months, ranking them 13th in earnings. Their recent victory against Aurora in the PGL Astana 2025 Group Stage and a solid run at the MESA Nomadic Masters, including a win against B8, highlight their potential to challenge top-tier teams.
Teams’ Map Pool
The map veto for this matchup is expected to be strategic, with Natus Vincere likely to first ban Nuke, a map where they have a moderate win rate but prefer to avoid. BIG is anticipated to first ban Anubis, aligning with their historical tendencies. Natus Vincere is projected to pick Mirage, a map where they hold a 70% win rate, while BIG may opt for Ancient, where they have a 54% win rate. The decider map is expected to be Inferno, a balanced choice for both teams.
| Map | Natus Vincere WR | M | B | Last 5 (NaVi) | BIG WR | M | B | Last 5 (BIG) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Train | 100% | 1 | 13 | FB, FB, FB, W, FB | 67% | 6 | 12 | W, W, W, FB, L |
| Inferno | 62% | 13 | 5 | L, W, W, W, W | 38% | 16 | 15 | L, L, W, W, L |
| Mirage | 70% | 20 | 1 | W, W, L, L, FB | 50% | 30 | 6 | L, W, W, W, W |
| Nuke | 71% | 7 | 7 | L, W, L, FB, FB | 58% | 12 | 12 | W, W, W, FB, FB |
| Dust II | 36% | 11 | 3 | W, L, L, L, FB | 47% | 19 | 4 | L, L, L, W, L |
| Ancient | 58% | 12 | 5 | L, FB, FB, W, L | 55% | 38 | 1 | L, L, L, W, L |
| Anubis | 25% | 4 | 14 | W, L, L, L | 25% | 4 | 31 | FB, FB, FB, FB, FB |
Prediction
Based on the analysis, Natus Vincere is favored to win this matchup with a predicted score of 2:0. Their superior form, historical dominance over BIG, and strategic map pool give them a significant edge. BIG will need to bring their best game to challenge Natus Vincere, but the statistics and recent performances suggest that Natus Vincere is likely to secure a victory.
Prediction: Natus Vincere 2:0 BIG
Odds are taken from Stake and are current at the time of publication.
PGL Astana 2025 takes place from May 10 to May 18 in Kazakhstan, featuring a prize pool of $625,000. You can follow the news, schedule, and results of the tournament via the link.
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