On May 16th, 2025, at 08:00 UTC, Natus Vincere will face off against Astralis in the PGL Astana 2025 Playoffs. This best-of-3 match promises to be an intense showdown as both teams vie for a spot in the tournament’s later stages. We have analyzed the statistics and the current form of the teams to make a prediction for the match outcome. For more details, you can check the match page.
Current form of the teams
Natus Vincere, currently ranked 11th in the world, enters this matchup with a recent victory over Aurora in the PGL Astana 2025 Group Stage. Their overall win rate stands at 69%, with a slight dip to 62% over the past half-year. The team has shown resilience, coming off a mixed bag of results in their last five matches, including wins against BIG and M80, but suffering a loss to The MongolZ. Their recent earnings over the last six months amount to $167,500, placing them 12th among their peers.
Astralis, on the other hand, is ranked 16th globally and comes into this match with a win against Virtus.pro in the same tournament. Their overall win rate is 57%, with a slight improvement in the last month to 57%. Their recent matches have been a rollercoaster, with victories over paiN and ODDIK, but a loss to Spirit highlights their inconsistency. Astralis has earned $186,625 over the past six months, ranking them 11th in earnings.
Teams’ Map Pool
The map veto prediction suggests an intriguing mix of strategies. Natus Vincere is likely to first ban Nuke, a map where Astralis has had a decent win rate. Astralis, in turn, is expected to first ban Anubis, a map they have consistently avoided. Natus Vincere might opt for Mirage as their first pick, where they have a 68% win rate over the last six months, while Astralis could go for Inferno, a map they are comfortable with, boasting a 59% win rate. The decider is anticipated to be Ancient, a relatively balanced map for both teams.
| Map | Natus Vincere Winrate | M | B | Last 5 Matches (NaVi) | Astralis Winrate | M | B | Last 5 Matches (Astralis) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Train | 100% | 2 | 13 | FB, FB, W, FB, W | 57% | 7 | 8 | W, L, W, L, W |
| Mirage | 68% | 22 | 1 | L, FB, W, W, L | 33% | 18 | 11 | L, W, W, L, L |
| Anubis | 25% | 4 | 15 | W, L, L, L, FB | 0% | 0 | 39 | FB, FB, FB, FB, FB |
| Nuke | 71% | 7 | 8 | L, W, L, FB, FB | 56% | 18 | 3 | W, L, W, L, W |
| Inferno | 63% | 16 | 5 | W, W, W, L, W | 59% | 27 | 0 | W, W, W, W, L |
| Ancient | 58% | 12 | 5 | L, FB, FB, W, L | 59% | 22 | 6 | W, L, L, L, W |
| Dust II | 36% | 11 | 3 | L, L, L, FB, W | 36% | 14 | 14 | L, L, W, L, W |
Head-to-Head
In their recent head-to-head encounters, Natus Vincere has had the upper hand, winning three out of the last five meetings against Astralis. Notably, they secured a 2-0 victory in their most recent clash on January 18, 2025. Historically, Natus Vincere tends to excel on maps like Mirage and Nuke against Astralis, while Astralis has found success on Inferno. These trends might influence their map picks and bans in the upcoming match.
Match Prediction
Based on the current form, win rates, and historical performance, Natus Vincere is favored to win this matchup with a predicted score of 2:1. Their stronger map pool and recent head-to-head success give them the edge over Astralis. However, Astralis’s potential to surprise on maps like Inferno should not be underestimated, making this a match to watch closely.
Prediction: Natus Vincere 2:1 Astralis
Odds are taken from Stake and are current at the time of publication.
PGL Astana 2025 takes place from May 10th to May 18th in Kazakhstan, featuring a prize pool of $625,000. You can follow the news, schedule, and results of the tournament via the link.
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