MOUZ and Vitality will face off in the upper bracket final of the BLAST Open Spring 2025. Both teams have already secured their spots in the playoffs, but now they are fighting for a better seed. Vitality enters the match as favorites, showcasing an impressive winning streak, while MOUZ aims to take revenge for recent losses. Let's analyze the current form of the teams, their map pool, and make a match prediction.
Current Form of the Teams
MOUZ
The average rating of MOUZ at S-tier events over the past month is 6.1. In the last month, the team participated in the ESL Pro League Season 21, where they reached the grand final after advancing to the playoffs with a 3-1 record but ultimately fell short. At the BLAST Open Spring 2025, MOUZ won two matches and secured a playoff spot, reaching the upper bracket final. In their last five matches, MOUZ secured four victories against teams like Spirit, Falcons, Spirit, and G2. The only loss came against Vitality.
| Date | Team | Score | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 21 | MOUZ | 2 - 1 | Spirit |
| March 19 | MOUZ | 2 - 0 | Falcons |
| March 16 | MOUZ | 0 - 3 | Vitality |
| March 15 | MOUZ | 2 - 1 | Spirit |
| March 13 | MOUZ | 2 - 1 | G2 |
Vitality
The average rating of Vitality at S-tier events over the past month is 6.6. Vitality also participated in ESL Pro League Season 21, where they confidently advanced to the playoffs with a 3-0 record and eventually won the tournament. At the BLAST Open Spring 2025, they reached the final, which also guaranteed them a place in the playoffs. Vitality won all five of their last matches, defeating Virtus.pro, Astralis, MOUZ, The Mongolz, and Liquid.
| Date | Team | Score | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 21 | Vitality | 2 - 0 | Virtus.pro |
| March 19 | Vitality | 2 - 0 | Astralis |
| March 16 | Vitality | 3 - 0 | MOUZ |
| March 15 | Vitality | 2 - 1 | The Mongolz |
| March 14 | Vitality | 2 - 0 | Liquid |
Team Map Pool
MOUZ typically bans the map Anubis (38 times), so it makes sense to expect that they will get rid of it first. Vitality, on the other hand, most often bans the map Ancient (31 times), which is likely to happen again in this match.
MOUZ traditionally picks a map considered a weak spot for their opponent. The most likely options are Nuke (played 23 times, win rate 74%) or Mirage (played 19 times, win rate 42%). However, against Vitality, Nuke might be preferable. Vitality is likely to choose Inferno (win rate 93%, 14 maps played) or Dust II (win rate 86%, 14 maps played), as both maps consistently bring them victories.
After the second round of bans, Mirage or Nuke is likely to remain. However, if MOUZ decides not to pick Nuke, it could end up as the deciding map.
| Map | MOUZ Winrate | M | B | Last 5 Matches (MOUZ) | Vitality Winrate | M | B | Last 5 Matches (Vitality) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ancient | 67% | 15 | 8 | W, W, W, W, W | 0% | 0 | 31 | FB, FB, FB, FB, FB |
| Anubis | 0% | 0 | 38 | FB, FB, FB, FB, FB | 50% | 14 | 11 | W, L, W, W, W |
| Inferno | 50% | 16 | 5 | W, L, L, L, L | 93% | 14 | 7 | W, W, W, W, W |
| Dust II | 50% | 14 | 14 | W, L, L, L, L | 86% | 14 | 2 | W, W, W, W, W |
| Mirage | 42% | 19 | 4 | L, L, W, W, L | 63% | 16 | 5 | L, W, L, W, W |
| Nuke | 74% | 23 | 2 | W, W, W, L, W | 83% | 12 | 2 | W, W, W, L, W |
| Train | 100% | 3 | 3 | W, W, W | 100% | 3 | 2 | W, W, W |
Head-to-Head Matches
In the last six months, the teams have faced each other four times. Six days ago, Vitality claimed victory with a 3-0 score. Thirteen days ago, Vitality won again, this time with a 2-0 score. Four months ago, the team also proved stronger than MOUZ, winning 2-0. However, five months ago, MOUZ managed to secure a series victory, concluding the match with a 2-1 score.
| Date | Team | Score | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 days ago | Vitality | 3 - 0 | MOUZ |
| 13 days ago | Vitality | 2 - 0 | MOUZ |
| 4 months ago | Vitality | 2 - 0 | MOUZ |
| 5 months ago | Vitality | 1 - 2 | MOUZ |
Match Prediction
Vitality appears to be the favorites in this encounter. They are in strong form, having won all five of their last matches, including a matchup against MOUZ, and they also won the ESL Pro League Season 21 final. Their win rate on key maps is significantly higher than that of MOUZ.
Prediction: Vitality wins 2-0
BLAST Open Lisbon 2025 takes place from March 19 to 30. The group stage will be held at the BLAST studio in Copenhagen, and the playoffs will be held at the MEO arena in Lisbon, Portugal. For more detailed results and tournament progress, follow the link.
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