The upcoming match between MOUZ and Natus Vincere is set to take place on July 28, 2025, at 11:30 UTC. This best-of-3 series is part of the Intel Extreme Masters Cologne 2025 Group B, a prestigious tournament currently underway in Germany. We have analyzed the statistics and the current form of the teams to make a prediction for the match outcome. Follow the match here.
Current form of the teams
MOUZ, currently ranked 2nd in the world (source), comes into this match with a solid form. Over the past year, they have maintained a 62% win rate, which has improved to 66% in the last six months and an impressive 100% in the recent month. Their recent performance includes a victory against Liquid with a score of 2-0 in the Intel Extreme Masters Cologne 2025, and a semifinal finish at the BLAST.tv Austin Major 2025, earning them $80,000.
MOUZ has been on a winstreak of one match, and their recent half-year earnings amount to $715,000, placing them 2nd in earnings rankings. In their last five matches, MOUZ has secured four wins, demonstrating strong performances against teams like Spirit and Legacy.
Natus Vincere, ranked 8th globally (source), also shows a commendable form. They boast an overall win rate of 69% over the past year, with a slight dip to 61% in the last six months but a perfect record in the most recent month. Natus Vincere’s recent achievements include a victory against FaZe in the Intel Extreme Masters Cologne 2025 and a quarterfinal finish at the BLAST.tv Austin Major 2025, where they earned $45,000. Their recent form has been somewhat inconsistent, with three wins out of their last five matches, including a notable win over G2.
They looked very good in yesterday's match against FaZe, and newcomer makazze played well. But whether he can play the same way against MOUZ remains to be seen. NAVI will also have one more day to prepare, which could have an impact on the game.
Teams Map Pool
The predicted map veto scenario suggests that MOUZ will first ban Anubis, while Natus Vincere will ban Dust2. MOUZ is expected to pick Nuke, where they have a strong win rate of 70% over 23 maps. Natus Vincere is likely to pick Mirage, a map they have a 70% win rate on over 20 maps. The bans will continue with MOUZ banning Inferno and Natus Vincere banning Ancient, leading to Train as the decider map. Historically, MOUZ has a 67% win rate on Train, while Natus Vincere has a slightly higher win rate of 75%.
| Map | MOUZ Winrate | M | B | Last 5 Matches (MOUZ) | Natus Vincere Winrate | M | B | Last 5 Matches (NAVI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuke | 70% | 23 | 1 | L, W, L, W, W | 40% | 5 | 5 | FB, FB, L, L, W |
| Inferno | 45% | 22 | 9 | W, L, W, L, L | 69% | 13 | 4 | L, L, W, L, W |
| Ancient | 67% | 15 | 2 | W, W, W, L, L | 44% | 9 | 7 | L, L, W, W, L |
| Dust II | 56% | 18 | 13 | W, W, L, W, L | 38% | 8 | 12 | FB, FB, FB, FB, FB |
| Anubis | 0% | 0 | 37 | FB, FB, FB, FB, FB | 17% | 6 | 9 | L, L, L, W, L |
| Mirage | 57% | 21 | 5 | W, L, W, L, W | 70% | 20 | 1 | W, L, W, L, W |
| Train | 67% | 9 | 4 | L, L, W, L, L | 75% | 4 | 9 | FB, W, W, L, W |
Prediction
Based on the analysis, MOUZ is expected to win the series with a 2:1 scoreline. Although Natus Vincere has strong performances on maps like Mirage and Train, MOUZ’s overall consistency, recent momentum, and depth in the map pool — particularly on Nuke and Ancient — give them a slight edge. NAVI may take a map if they execute well on their comfort pick, but MOUZ’s current form and tactical discipline should allow them to close out the series in three maps.
Prediction: MOUZ 2:1 Natus Vincere
Intel Extreme Masters Cologne 2025 takes place from July 26 to August 3 in Germany, featuring a prize pool of $1,250,000. You can follow the news, schedule, and results of the tournament via the link.
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