Vitality approach the tournament as favorites, having won three tier-1 tournaments in a row, while Liquid are trying to regain confidence after their failure at PGL Bucharest 2025. IEM Melbourne 2025 is a crucial tournament for both: for Vitality, it's a chance to win the ESL Grand Slam, and for Liquid, it's an opportunity to prove they can still compete with the top teams. In this article, we will assess the current form of the teams, analyze the map pool, and provide a match prediction.

Current Form of the Teams

Vitality continue to maintain their status as one of the strongest teams on the scene. The start of 2025 has been brilliant for them: three consecutive victories in tier-1 tournaments and a high average team rating over the past month — 6.2. Despite a break of almost a month, the team approached IEM Melbourne 2025 well-prepared and as one of the main favorites of the tournament. Considering their current form, talks of a "Vitality era" are becoming more frequent.

Liquid are in the opposite situation: the team is still searching for their game. After a disastrous performance at PGL Bucharest 2025, where they were the first to be eliminated, the team is under significant pressure. Their average rating for the last month is 5.7, and despite a confident victory over Virtus.pro in their opening match of this tournament, Liquid's stability remains questionable. However, the two-week break between tournaments might have given them a chance for restructuring and tactical preparation.

Map Pool

Vitality will likely start by banning Ancient — a map they have a 0% win rate on and which hasn't been part of their strong suit for a while. The second logical ban would be Anubis, where their performance also leaves much to be desired (36% over 14 matches).

As for their pick, Vitality will most likely choose Nuke — one of their most confident maps this season with a 92% win rate. Dust2 (85%) or Inferno (82%) are also possible — both maps are under the team's control, with clear and well-thought-out gameplay.

Liquid will likely start by banning Nuke to prevent Vitality from having a comfortable start. Then, if Vitality don't remove Anubis, Liquid will pick this map — it's their most successful map recently. Alternatively, they might choose Inferno if Liquid opts for a more versatile play.

Past Encounters

So far, Vitality and Liquid have faced each other only once at ESL Pro League Season 21. Back then, Vitality claimed victory with a 2-0 score, winning both maps 13-9.

Match Prediction

Despite Liquid's win over Virtus.pro in their first group match, they will be clear underdogs against Vitality. Vitality show excellent team chemistry, possess a deep map pool, and have strong individual player forms. Liquid, meanwhile, are still in the rebuilding phase and unstable when facing top-tier teams.

Even if Liquid manage to snag a map, like Anubis, the overall execution level of Vitality is currently higher. Given the current setup, Vitality appear significantly stronger and should confidently advance in the bracket.

Prediction: Vitality to win 2-0.

IEM Melbourne 2025 takes place from April 21 to 27. The entire tournament is held in Melbourne, Australia, at the Rod Laver Arena. Participants are competing for a prize pool of $300,000. You can follow the results and progress of the tournament at this link.