In the group stage of IEM Melbourne 2025, we're set to witness a match between the inconsistent Liquid and the unpredictable Virtus.Pro. Both teams enter the tournament with different backgrounds but similar challenges—finding a confident gameplay and roster balance. In this article, we'll analyze the current form of the teams, the potential map pool, and provide a prediction for the outcome of this match.
Current Team Form
Liquid is in a tough spot. After significant roster changes, the team still hasn't found its game. Their last tournament was PGL Bucharest 2025, where they finished in last place, delivering a very weak performance. Liquid's average rating over the past month is 5.7, one of the lowest among the tournament participants. However, the team has had more than two weeks to prepare for IEM Melbourne, and there's a chance we might see a different version of Liquid.
| Date | Team | Score | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 08 | Liquid | 0 - 2 | The MongolZ |
| Apr 07 | Liquid | 0 - 2 | Virtus.pro |
| Apr 06 | Liquid | 0 - 2 | Legacy |
| Mar 23 | Liquid | 0 - 2 | The MongolZ |
| Mar 22 | Liquid | 2 - 1 | Imperial |
Virtus.Pro, on the other hand, performs inconsistently but occasionally shows quality gameplay. At PGL Bucharest 2025, they reached the playoffs, where they lost to G2 in the quarterfinals. During the group stage, VP looked decent, but at times the team seemed lost—especially amid emotional outbursts from electroNic. The team has potential and can beat any opponent, but it all depends on which version of the team we see on the server.
| Date | Team | Score | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11 | Virtus.pro | 0 - 2 | G2 |
| Apr 10 | Virtus.pro | 2 - 0 | Astralis |
| Apr 09 | Virtus.pro | 0 - 2 | GamerLegion |
| Apr 08 | Virtus.pro | 2 - 0 | FURIA |
| Apr 07 | Virtus.pro | 2 - 0 | Liquid |
Map Pool
Liquid will likely remove Dust2—one of Virtus.Pro's strongest maps, where they have a 77% win rate. Virtus.Pro, in turn, will likely ban Anubis, which they play poorly (36%) and where Liquid feels comfortable.
In the pick stage, Liquid will probably choose Anubis if it's not banned, or Inferno—a proven ground for the American team. Virtus.Pro will likely opt for Dust2 if it's available, or choose Train, where they have a 50% win rate and a stable performance history.
Liquid's second ban will probably target Train to limit VP's comfort, while Virtus.Pro might eliminate Nuke, where they have a 0% win rate and unsatisfactory performances.
| Map | Liquid Winrate | M | B | Last 5 Matches (Liquid) | Virtus.Pro Winrate | M | B | Last 5 Matches (Virtus.Pro) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dust II | 27% | 11 | 17 | W, L, L, L, L | 71% | 14 | 5 | W, W, L, W, W |
| Train | 100% | 1 | 13 | FB, FB, FB, FB, FB | 60% | 5 | 8 | W, L, W, L, W |
| Nuke | 33% | 12 | 9 | L, FB, FB, FB, L | 0% | 0 | 29 | FB, FB, FB, FB, FB |
| Anubis | 59% | 17 | 0 | W, L, L, L, L | 36% | 11 | 4 | L, L, L, W, L |
| Inferno | 67% | 12 | 3 | W, W, L, W, FB | 54% | 13 | 5 | L, W, L, W, L |
| Ancient | 50% | 12 | 3 | W, L, L, L, W | 44% | 16 | 2 | W, W, L, W, L |
| Mirage | 33% | 6 | 12 | FB, FB, L, L, L | 33% | 12 | 4 | L, L, W, W, L |
Match Prediction
Virtus.Pro appears to be a more cohesive team—albeit not always stable, but capable of controlling the pace and playing according to plan. Liquid is still in a rebuilding phase, and while two weeks of preparation may help, their current form and results don't inspire much confidence.
If VP doesn't fail the draft and can impose their game, they have every chance to secure a victory. Liquid might snag a map, but over the distance, Virtus.Pro seems more favorable.
Prediction: Virtus.Pro wins 2-1
IEM Melbourne 2025 takes place from April 21 to 27. The entire tournament is held in Melbourne, Australia at Rod Laver Arena. Participants compete for a prize pool of $300,000. You can follow the results and progress of the tournament through this link.
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