In the group stage of the ESL Pro League Season 21 Play-in, we are set for an exciting showdown between HEROIC and SAW. HEROIC are in the process of rebuilding their roster but have already shown competitive play, while SAW have arrived at the tournament with a revamped lineup and are trying to find their form. In this material, we will analyze the current state of the teams, the possible map pool, and provide a prediction for the match outcome.
Current Team Form
HEROIC are currently undergoing a roster rebuild and recently held a bootcamp to prepare for the tournament. After the break following IEM Katowice 2025, the team participated in two online qualifiers for BLAST and IEM Dallas 2025. In the latter, they defeated Astralis in the lower bracket final, securing a spot in the main tournament. The team's average rating for the past month is 6.1.
Date
Team
Score
Opponent
Feb 20
HEROIC
2 - 0
Astralis
Feb 11
HEROIC
2 - 0
Metizport
Feb 11
HEROIC
2 - 1
BIG
Feb 10
HEROIC
1 - 2
3DMAX
Feb 10
HEROIC
2 - 1
Zero Tenacity
SAW are showing mixed results with an average rating of 5.8 for the month. At IEM Katowice 2025, they suffered losses to GamerLegion and Virtus.pro and failed to qualify for BLAST, losing two matches in a row. However, at PGL Cluj-Napoca 2025, SAW managed an impressive comeback despite the threat of elimination. The team made it to the playoffs in a dramatic fashion, despite news of the roster disbanding after the tournament. In the playoffs, they lost the first match against FaZe and exited the tournament. SAW will arrive at the ESL Pro League Season 21 Play-in with a new lineup.
Date
Team
Score
Opponent
Feb 21
SAW
0 - 2
FaZe
Feb 18
SAW
2 - 0
3DMAX
Feb 17
SAW
2 - 0
Complexity
Feb 16
SAW
2 - 1
FlyQuest
Feb 15
SAW
0 - 2
Astralis
Map Pool
HEROIC's strongest maps are Mirage (75% win rate) and Anubis (57% win rate), and they also have decent results on Dust2 (52% win rate). A likely ban will be Inferno, which they haven't played for 38 matches in a row, and possibly Train as a second ban since they haven't played this map since its addition.
SAW will likely ban Mirage, as they have avoided this map for the past 6 months, banning it 29 times in a row. As their pick, they might choose Nuke, which is their strongest map (71% win rate over 24 games), or Dust II, where they have a 60% win rate. Anubis remains a stable map for SAW, but their results on it are less confident (50% win rate).
Map
Heroic Winrate
M
B
Last 5 Matches (Heroic)
SAW Winrate
M
B
Last 5 Matches (SAW)
Mirage
76%
21
2
L, W, W, W, W
0%
0
29
L, L, L, L, L
Inferno
0%
0
38
L, L, L, L, L
50%
12
8
L, W, L, W, L
Nuke
47%
9
19
L, L, L, W, W
61%
23
1
W, L, W, L, W
Ancient
58%
26
9
W, W, L, L, W
45%
9
6
W, L, W, L, W
Dust II
53%
19
12
L, W, W, W, W
64%
11
9
L, W, W, L, W
Anubis
57%
21
9
L, W, L, W, W
50%
10
9
L, L, W, W, L
Train
0%
0
1
L
0%
0
1
L
Match Prediction
Considering the current form of the teams and the map pool analysis, it can be assumed that the match will be intense. HEROIC, despite recent roster changes, show stable results and have an advantage in experience. SAW, with their new lineup, can spring a surprise, especially on their strong maps. However, given the statistics and history of encounters, the favorite is HEROIC.
Prediction: HEROIC 2-1 SAW
The ESL Pro League Season 21 will take place from March 1 to 16 in Stockholm. 24 teams will compete for a prize pool of $400,000. Follow the schedule, match results, and tournament progress at the link here.
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