In the group stage of IEM Melbourne 2025, we anticipate a showdown between FaZe and paiN—teams with differing trajectories in form and recent performances. FaZe enters the match as the favorite, showcasing consistent play in top tournaments, while paiN is attempting to emerge from a prolonged slump.
Current Team Form
FaZe
FaZe approaches IEM Melbourne 2025 in fairly stable form. Over the past month, the team has participated in two major tournaments—BLAST Open Spring 2025 and PGL Bucharest 2025. In the first, they were halted at the lower bracket semifinals, finishing 9–12th. However, in Bucharest, FaZe performed significantly better: they advanced from the group stage with a 3-2 record and reached the semifinals, where they fell short but then confidently won the match for third place.
Out of their last five matches, FaZe secured three victories—against Complexity, 3DMAX, and Apogee. Their losses were to Falcons and Complexity again. On average, the team's rating at S-tier events over the last month is 6.1, confirming their high level and consistent gameplay.
| Date | Team | Score | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| April 13 | FaZe | 2 - 0 | Complexity |
| April 12 | FaZe | 1 - 2 | Falcons |
| April 11 | FaZe | 2 - 0 | 3DMAX |
| April 10 | FaZe | 2 - 0 | Apogee |
| April 09 | FaZe | 0 - 2 | Complexity |
paiN
In contrast to their opponent, paiN is experiencing challenging times. Their performance at PGL Bucharest 2025 was extremely disappointing—the team exited the tournament in the group stage with a 0-3 result, not winning a single map.
| Date | Team | Score | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| April 08 | paiN | 1 - 2 | Falcons |
| April 07 | paiN | 0 - 2 | FaZe |
| April 06 | paiN | 1 - 2 | Aurora |
| March 10 | paiN | 0 - 2 | Eternal Fire (now Aurora) |
| March 09 | paiN | 0 - 2 | NAVI |
Team Map Pool
It is highly likely that FaZe will first ban Train—a map they consistently ignore (14 bans). In response, paiN will ban Ancient, aligning with their strategy (31 bans) and nullifying one of FaZe's strongest weapons—a 71% win rate on that map.
For their picks, FaZe might choose Dust II—a map where they show a confident 53% win rate and can exploit paiN's lower results (44%). Conversely, paiN will likely prefer Mirage—a comfortable map for them with a 58% win rate, which could also trouble FaZe.
After the second bans, it would be most logical to exclude Nuke from both sides, as it suits both teams well. Thus, the decider would be either Inferno or Overpass, where FaZe would have some advantage due to their higher overall level of play and adaptability.
| Map | paiN Winrate | M | B | Last 5 Matches (paiN) | FaZe Winrate | M | B | Last 5 Matches (FaZe) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Train | 0% | 4 | 14 | L, L, L, L | 50% | 2 | 14 | FB, W, L, FB, FB |
| Ancient | 100% | 1 | 31 | FB, FB, FB, FB, FB | 71% | 21 | 1 | L, L, W, W, W |
| Inferno | 24% | 17 | 7 | L, L, W, L, L | 38% | 13 | 8 | FB, FB, W, FB, W |
| Nuke | 67% | 18 | 4 | L, W, L, L, W | 53% | 15 | 8 | W, W, L, W, L |
| Anubis | 40% | 5 | 13 | L, L, W, FB, FB | 50% | 10 | 10 | L, W, L, L, W |
| Dust II | 44% | 18 | 3 | W, L, W, L, L | 53% | 15 | 10 | W, W, L, W, W |
| Mirage | 58% | 19 | 6 | L, L, W, W, L | 55% | 11 | 9 | W, W, FB, FB, L |
Head-to-Head Encounters
In the past six months, the teams have faced each other twice. The first match took place three months ago, where paiN secured a convincing 2-0 victory. However, just 12 days ago, FaZe took a decisive revenge—2-0 in their favor. This indicates that the team not only adapted but also confidently tackles paiN's style of play.
| Date | Team | Score | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 days ago | FaZe | 2 - 0 | paiN |
| 3 months ago | FaZe | 0 - 2 | paiN |
Match Prediction
Considering the current form of the teams, individual player performances, and recent head-to-head encounters, FaZe appears to be the favorite. The team shows stable results in major tournaments, has won most of their recent matches, and possesses a deeper map pool. While paiN is experiencing a downturn in form and struggling to break their losing streak, FaZe is clearly on the rise and will aim to solidify their advantage.
Prediction: FaZe wins 2-0
IEM Melbourne 2025 takes place from April 21 to 27. The entire tournament is held in Melbourne, Australia at the Rod Laver Arena. Participants compete for a prize pool of $300,000. You can follow the results and progress of the tournament via this link.
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