During the group stage of PGL Bucharest 2025, we anticipate an exciting showdown between Aurora and paiN. Aurora is a lineup that previously played under the banner of Eternal Fire, while paiN represents South America and is eager to prove its worth on the global stage. The match promises to be intense: both teams are motivated to advance to the playoffs and are unwilling to concede to each other, either on the map or in duels.

Current Team Form

Aurora

Today it was announced that Aurora has acquired the entire roster of Eternal Fire, so matches and statistics are listed under Eternal Fire, as they have yet to establish them under the Aurora tag. The team's average rating at S-tier events over the past month is 6.0. At the ESL Pro League Season 21, Aurora performed commendably: with a 3-2 result, they reached the playoffs but were halted in the quarterfinals. At the BLAST Open Spring 2025, the team reached the group final and, after winning it, advanced to the playoff semifinals, where they fell to a stronger opponent. In their last five matches, Aurora secured three victories—against NAVI, G2, and Liquid. Their only losses were to Spirit and MOUZ.

paiN

Unlike Aurora, paiN is experiencing a less stable period. Their average rating at S-tier events over the past month is 5.9. At ESL Pro League Season 21, the team failed to advance from the group stage, finishing with a 1-3 record.

In their last five encounters, paiN won only two—against GamerLegion and Nemiga, which does not indicate serious competitiveness against strong opponents. The other three matches—against NAVI, G2, and Aurora—ended in losses, highlighting clear issues when playing against top-tier teams.

Team Map Pool

Both teams traditionally ban Ancient first, and it's likely that this map will be banned by Aurora. In response, paiN will probably get rid of Nuke, where Aurora has a high win rate.

Aurora typically makes their choice based on the opponent's weaknesses. Considering this, a logical option would be Anubis—a map where they have a 75% win rate, and paiN does not show confident play. In turn, paiN, based on their win rate and pick frequency, will likely choose Mirage—their most played and successful map. In the second ban phase, Aurora will likely eliminate Train, as it is not their priority. paiN, on the other hand, might remove Inferno to prevent the opponent from playing on one of their comfortable maps.

As a result, the deciding map will be Dust II—one of the most neutral in the pool and equally familiar to both sides, but Aurora has a slight edge in win rate on it.

Head-to-Head Encounters

The only meeting between the teams in the past six months took place 27 days ago. In that match, Aurora (then under the Eternal Fire tag) confidently defeated paiN 2-0, demonstrating a higher level of organization and individual skill. This gives Aurora an additional psychological advantage heading into the upcoming game.

Match Prediction

Considering the current form, consistent high-level performances, and positive head-to-head experience, Aurora enters the match as the clear favorite. Their flexibility in map selection, solid play against top teams, and recent victories over NAVI, G2, and Liquid indicate a high level of current preparation.

paiN, despite occasional bursts, has yet to demonstrate the same stability and strength, especially against serious opponents. Even on their comfortable maps, Aurora can challenge and emerge victorious due to their deep map pool and individual player skill.

Prediction: Aurora wins 2-0

PGL Bucharest 2025 runs from April 6 to April 13. The entire tournament takes place in Bucharest, Romania, at the PGL Studio. Participants compete for a prize pool of $625,000. You can follow the results and progress of the tournament via this link.