On May 18th, 2025, at 08:00 UTC, Aurora will face off against FURIA in a best-of-3 series at the PGL Astana 2025 3rd Place Match. This match is pivotal as both teams are vying for a spot in the finals of this prestigious tournament. We have analyzed the statistics and the current form of the teams to make a prediction for the match outcome. For more details about the match, visit the match page.
Current form of the teams
Aurora, currently ranked 7th in the world (world rankings), has shown a mixed performance recently. Over the last month, they have maintained a win rate of 57%, with a slight drop to 55% over the recent half year. They have accumulated $47,250 in earnings over the past six months, placing them 37th in earnings rankings. Their recent matches in the PGL Astana 2025 have been a rollercoaster, with a recent loss to Astralis match link in the semifinals after a strong victory against The MongolZ match link in the quarterfinals. Their form has been inconsistent, and they currently hold no winstreak.
In contrast, FURIA, ranked 20th globally, is riding a wave of momentum with a five-match winstreak. They boast a remarkable 83% win rate over the last month, indicating a peak in their performance. Their recent half-year earnings amount to $54,875, ranking them 34th. FURIA’s recent victories include a win over Spirit match link in the semifinals and a decisive victory against MIBR match link in the quarterfinals. This string of successes has bolstered their confidence heading into the decider match.
Teams’ Map Pool
The map veto for this match is expected to see Aurora banning Ancient first, while FURIA will likely remove Mirage. Aurora might opt for Anubis as their first pick, given their 61% win rate on it over the past six months, while FURIA could choose Train, where they have a 67% win rate. Nuke and Inferno are expected to be banned in the subsequent rounds, leaving Dust2 as the decider, a map where FURIA holds a slight edge with a 59% win rate compared to Aurora’s 38%.
| Map | Aurora Winrate | M | B | Last 5 Matches (Aurora) | FURIA Winrate | M | B | Last 5 Matches (FURIA) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ancient | 42% | 33 | 21 | FB, FB, FB, FB, FB | 0% | 0 | 32 | FB, FB, FB, FB, FB |
| Mirage | 65% | 43 | 2 | W, W, W, W, W | 33% | 18 | 4 | L, W, L, L, L |
| Dust II | 38% | 8 | 41 | FB, W, L, L, W | 59% | 17 | 4 | L, W, W, W, L |
| Nuke | 55% | 31 | 8 | W, W, W, L, W | 40% | 10 | 8 | L, L, L, W, W |
| Anubis | 61% | 23 | 32 | W, L, W, W, W | 47% | 15 | 11 | L, W, W, L, W |
| Train | 55% | 33 | 3 | W, L, L, L, L | 67% | 9 | 4 | L, L, W, W, W |
| Inferno | 50% | 20 | 15 | L, L, L, W, L | 46% | 13 | 9 | W, L, L, L, W |
Match Prediction
Considering the current form and historical data, FURIA is favored to win this matchup with a predicted score of 2-0. They have a higher win rate in recent months and a psychological edge from past victories over Aurora. FURIA’s map pool advantage, especially on Train and Dust2, further strengthens their position as the likely victors in this decider match.
Prediction: Aurora 0:2 FURIA
Odds are taken from Stake and are current at the time of publication.
PGL Astana 2025 takes place from May 10th to May 18th in Kazakhstan, featuring a prize pool of $1,250,000. You can follow the news, schedule, and results of the tournament via the link.
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