On May 17, 2025, at 10:00 AM UTC, Aurora will face off against Astralis in the PGL Astana 2025 Playoffs. This best-of-3 encounter is set to be a thrilling showdown between two formidable teams. With a spot in the finals at stake, both teams will be looking to assert their dominance. We have analyzed the statistics and the current form of the teams to make a prediction for the match outcome. Watch the match here.
Current form of the teams
Aurora, currently ranked 7th in the world ranking, is coming into this match with a strong performance streak. Over the last month, Aurora has maintained an impressive win rate of 67%, showcasing their growing prowess. Their recent victories against The MongolZ and ODDIK in the PGL Astana 2025 have bolstered their confidence, although they faced a setback against Natus Vincere. Aurora’s earnings over the last six months amount to $47,250, placing them 35th in the earnings ranking. Their recent form is highlighted by a winstreak of two matches, and they have shown resilience in their last five matches, winning four out of five. See more about Aurora.
Astralis, ranked 16th globally, is equally determined to make their mark in the playoffs. With a recent win rate of 67% over the last month, Astralis has demonstrated consistent performance. Their recent victories against Natus Vincere and Virtus.pro have been crucial in their journey through the PGL Astana 2025. Astralis’s earnings in the past six months have reached $186,625, ranking them 10th among their peers. Like Aurora, Astralis is also on a two-match winstreak, having won four of their last five encounters. Learn more about Astralis.
Teams’ Map Pool
The map veto for this match is expected to follow a strategic pattern. Aurora is likely to first ban Ancient, while Astralis will counter with a ban on Anubis. Aurora’s first pick is anticipated to be Mirage, a map where they have a 63% win rate over the last six months. Astralis is expected to opt for Inferno as their first pick, leveraging their 59% win rate on this map. The remaining maps will see Aurora banning Nuke and Astralis removing Train, leaving Dust2 as the decider.
| Map | Aurora Winrate | M | B | Last 5 Matches (Aurora) | Astralis Winrate | M | B | Last 5 Matches (Astralis) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anubis | 61% | 23 | 32 | W, W, L, W, W | 0% | 0 | 40 | FB, FB, FB, FB, FB |
| Mirage | 64% | 42 | 2 | W, W, W, W, L | 32% | 19 | 11 | L, L, W, L, L |
| Ancient | 42% | 33 | 20 | FB, FB, FB, FB, FB | 61% | 23 | 6 | L, W, W, L, W |
| Inferno | 50% | 20 | 14 | L, L, L, L, W | 59% | 27 | 0 | W, W, W, L, W |
| Dust II | 38% | 8 | 41 | FB, FB, L, W, W | 36% | 14 | 14 | L, L, W, W, L |
| Nuke | 57% | 30 | 8 | W, W, L, W, W | 58% | 19 | 3 | L, L, W, W, W |
| Train | 56% | 32 | 3 | L, L, L, W, W | 57% | 7 | 9 | W, W, W, L, W |
Prediction
Considering the current form and historical data, Aurora is likely to edge out Astralis in a closely contested 2-1 victory. Aurora’s superior map pool, particularly on Mirage and their strategic approach in map veto, gives them a slight advantage. While Astralis has been a tough opponent historically, Aurora’s recent form and higher win probability of 77% suggest they have the upper hand in this matchup.
Prediction: Aurora 2:1 Astralis
Odds are taken from Stake and are current at the time of publication.
PGL Astana 2025 takes place from May 10 to May 18 in Kazakhstan, featuring a prize pool of $1,250,000. You can follow the news, schedule, and results of the tournament via the link.
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