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Astralis vs Virtus.pro Match Prediction and Analysis - PGL Astana 2025 Group Stage
On May 13, 2025, at 08:00 AM UTC, Astralis will face Virtus.pro in a best-of-3 series during the PGL Astana 2025 Group Stage. This tournament, held in Kazakhstan, is part of the prestigious S-tier events and boasts a prize pool of $625,000. We have analyzed the statistics and the current form of the teams to make a prediction for the match outcome. Watch the match here.
Current form of the teams
Astralis, currently ranked 16th in the world, has shown a mixed performance recently. Their overall win rate stands at 57%, with a slight dip to 51% over the past year and a recovery to 56% in the recent month. Astralis has been consistent in their recent matches, securing victories against paiN and ODDIK in the PGL Astana 2025, but they faltered against Spirit in their latest match.
Their recent earnings over the past six months amount to $186,625, placing them 11th in terms of financial performance. In their last five matches, Astralis has alternated between wins and losses, indicating a lack of consistency. They ended up 7th in the BLAST.tv Austin Major 2025: European Regional Qualifier. Check out Astralis’ team page.
Virtus.pro, ranked 13th globally, enters this match with a two-game winning streak. Despite a lower recent month win rate of 40%, their overall win rate is a solid 60%. They have recently defeated BIG and M80 in the PGL Astana 2025, showcasing their potential to perform under pressure. Their recent earnings stand at $134,000, ranking them 14th. However, Virtus.pro had a challenging time at the Intel Extreme Masters Melbourne 2025, finishing in the 13-16th bracket. Explore Virtus.pro’s team page.
Teams Map Pool
The map veto for this match is expected to see Astralis first banning Anubis and Virtus.pro banning Nuke. Astralis is likely to pick Inferno, where they have a 62% win rate over the past six months. Virtus.pro might choose Dust2, leveraging their 69% win rate on this map. Mirage and Train are expected to be banned next, leading to Ancient as the decider map. Both teams have shown varied performances across these maps, making the veto process crucial.
| Map | Astralis Winrate | M | B | Last 5 Matches (Astralis) | Virtus.Pro Winrate | M | B | Last 5 Matches (Virtus.Pro) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuke | 56% | 18 | 3 | W, W, L, W, L | 0% | 0 | 32 | FB, FB, FB, FB, FB |
| Dust II | 31% | 13 | 14 | L, L, L, W, L | 69% | 16 | 5 | W, L, W, W, W |
| Anubis | 0% | 0 | 39 | FB, FB, FB, FB, FB | 33% | 9 | 6 | L, L, W, L, W |
| Ancient | 57% | 21 | 6 | L, W, L, L, W | 44% | 18 | 2 | L, W, L, W, L |
| Inferno | 62% | 26 | 0 | W, L, W, W, W | 53% | 15 | 7 | FB, FB, FB, W, L |
| Train | 57% | 7 | 8 | W, L, W, L, W | 50% | 6 | 9 | L, W, W, L, W |
| Mirage | 33% | 18 | 11 | L, W, L, L, W | 38% | 13 | 4 | W, W, L, W, L |
Head-to-Head
In their last five encounters, Virtus.pro has dominated Astralis, winning four out of five matches. Their most recent match on April 10, 2025, ended in a 2-0 victory for Virtus.pro. This historical advantage gives Virtus.pro a psychological edge, as they have consistently outperformed Astralis in direct matchups. The map choices in past meetings have often favored Virtus.pro, which could influence the upcoming match’s outcome. See their previous encounters.
Prediction
Considering the current form, historical head-to-head performance, and map statistics, Virtus.pro is slightly favored to win this match. Their consistent victories over Astralis and a stronger map pool on Dust2 provide them with a tactical edge. While Astralis could secure a map, likely Inferno, Virtus.pro’s overall strength and recent form suggest they will emerge victorious with a 2-1 scoreline.
Prediction: Astralis 1:2 Virtus.pro
Odds are taken from Stake and are current at the time of publication.
PGL Astana 2025 takes place from May 10 to May 18 in Kazakhstan, featuring a prize pool of $625,000. You can follow the news, schedule, and results of the tournament via the link.
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