On May 18, 2025, at 12:00 PM UTC, Astralis will face off against Spirit in the grand final of the PGL Astana 2025 playoffs. This best-of-5 series promises to be a thrilling conclusion to the tournament. We have analyzed the statistics and the current form of the teams to make a prediction for the match outcome. For more details on the match, check out the match page.
Current form of the teams
Astralis, currently ranked 16th in the world (world rankings), enters this match with a commendable winstreak of three matches. Over the past month, Astralis has shown a remarkable improvement in form, boasting a win rate of 83%. Their overall win rate for the recent half-year stands at 56%, reflecting a steady performance. Astralis has accumulated earnings of $186,625 over the past six months, positioning them 10th in terms of earnings compared to other teams.
In their recent matches, Astralis has demonstrated resilience and skill. They secured a 2-1 victory over Aurora in the semifinals and overcame Natus Vincere with a 2-1 score in the quarterfinals. Their journey through the group stage included a 2-1 win against Virtus.pro and a 2-0 victory over paiN. However, they did suffer a 0-2 loss to Spirit earlier in the group stage.
Spirit, ranked 4th globally, has been a formidable force in the tournament, with an impressive half-year win rate of 76%. Their recent monthly performance shows a win rate of 67%, maintaining their status as one of the top contenders. Spirit’s recent half-year earnings of $1,073,125 place them at the pinnacle of the earnings chart.
Spirit’s path to the grand final included a hard-fought 2-1 win over FURIA in the semifinals and a clean 2-0 sweep against Ninjas in Pyjamas in the quarterfinals. Their group stage performance was equally strong, with victories over Astralis, Ninjas in Pyjamas, and GamerLegion.
Teams’ Map Pool
The map veto scenario for this grand final is intriguing. Astralis will likely first ban Anubis, while Spirit is expected to ban Inferno. In terms of picks, Astralis might choose Ancient, and Spirit could go for Dust2. The subsequent picks are Train for Astralis and Mirage for Spirit, with Nuke as the decider. The historical map statistics suggest that Spirit has a strong preference for Dust2, where they have an impressive win rate of 88%, while Astralis might rely on their experience on Train, where they hold a 63% win rate.
| Map | Astralis Winrate | M | B | Last 5 Matches (Astralis) | Spirit Winrate | M | B | Last 5 Matches (Spirit) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anubis | 0% | 0 | 41 | FB, FB, FB, FB, FB | 67% | 15 | 10 | W, W, W, L, W |
| Inferno | 59% | 27 | 0 | W, W, W, W, L | 0% | 0 | 43 | FB, FB, FB, FB, FB |
| Dust II | 36% | 14 | 15 | L, L, W, L, W | 88% | 25 | 2 | L, W, W, W, W |
| Mirage | 30% | 20 | 11 | W, W, L, L, L | 71% | 17 | 7 | L, W, W, L, W |
| Train | 63% | 8 | 9 | W, L, W, L, W | 83% | 6 | 11 | W, W, W, W, W |
| Nuke | 60% | 20 | 3 | L, W, L, W, W | 67% | 21 | 7 | W, W, W, L, W |
| Ancient | 61% | 23 | 6 | L, L, L, W, W | 62% | 13 | 6 | L, L, W, L, W |
Head-to-Head
In their recent encounters, Spirit has dominated Astralis, winning all five of their last matches. The most recent clash on May 12, 2025, saw Spirit triumph with a 2-0 scoreline. Historically, Spirit has shown a superior performance in head-to-head matchups, with a win rate of 53% against Astralis. This suggests a psychological edge for Spirit going into the grand final.
Match Prediction
Based on current form, map pool strengths, and head-to-head history, Spirit is the favorite to win this grand final. While Astralis has shown improvement recently, Spirit’s consistency and past victories over Astralis give them a significant advantage. The predicted scoreline is 3-1 in favor of Spirit, with their strong map performances likely to secure the win.
Prediction: Astralis 1:3 Spirit
Odds are taken from Stake and are current at the time of publication.
PGL Astana 2025 takes place from May 10 to May 18 in Kazakhstan, featuring a prize pool of $1,250,000. You can follow the news, schedule, and results of the tournament via the link.
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