On October 1, 2025, at 14:00 UTC, two titans of the Counter-Strike scene, Astralis and HEROIC, will face off in the ESL Pro League Season 22 Stage 1. This best-of-3 series will be a critical encounter in the Swiss format stage of the tournament, hosted in Sweden. We have analyzed the statistics and the current form of the teams to make a prediction for the match outcome. Follow the match here.

Current form of the teams

Astralis, currently ranked 11th in the world according to the world rankings, has shown a mixed bag of performances recently. Over the last year, their win rate stands at 53%, which has slightly decreased to 52% in the past six months, and further down to 44% in the last month. Despite earning $275,625 over the last six months, ranking them 12th in earnings, their recent form has been inconsistent. In the ESL Pro League Season 22 Stage 1, Astralis has faced setbacks against GamerLegion and ENCE, losing both matches. However, they secured a win against Fluxo. Their journey in the FISSURE Playground 2 ended in the quarterfinals, with a loss to FURIA, although they managed to defeat GamerLegion earlier in the group stage.

HEROIC, ranked 14th globally, has also faced challenges recently, with a win rate of 60% over the past year, dipping to 58% in the recent half-year, and a concerning 17% in the last month. Their earnings in the past six months have been $287,000, placing them 11th in the earnings rankings. In the current ESL Pro League, HEROIC defeated M80 but suffered losses against 3DMAX and Gentle Mates. Their performance in the FISSURE Playground 2 was underwhelming, finishing 15-16th after losses to Liquid and paiN.

Teams’ Map Pool

The anticipated map veto for this matchup suggests Astralis will first ban Anubis, while HEROIC will remove Inferno. Astralis is likely to pick Nuke, where they have a 63% win rate over the last six months, while HEROIC might choose Mirage, a map where they have a 60% win rate. The decider could be Dust2, a map both teams have struggled on recently.

Prediction: Astralis 2:0 HEROIC

Considering the current form and historical data, Astralis is favored to win this matchup with a predicted score of 2:0. Despite their recent struggles, Astralis has a stronger map pool for this encounter, and their overall win probability stands at 67%. HEROIC’s recent dip in form and Astralis’s superior performance on key maps like Nuke and Ancient suggest that Astralis has the edge in this duel.

ESL Pro League Season 22 takes place from September 27 to October 1 in Sweden, featuring a prize pool of $1,250,000. You can follow the news, schedule, and results of the tournament via the link.