Prediction and analysis of the match between Natus Vincere and FaZe Clan in the final of PGL Major Copenhagen 2024

Here we've reached that very evening when all eyes of those interested in Counter-Strike will be glued to one single match. Natus Vincere will play against FaZe Clan in the final of the first ever Counter-Strike 2 major, PGL Major Copenhagen 2024.

To make watching the match even more interesting, let's first conduct a thorough analysis of the match, as well as make our own prediction. The confrontation itself will start on March 31, 2024, at 20:00 CET.

The last time the teams met was 5 months ago at Intel Extreme Masters Sydney 2023. That tournament was the first one where we didn't see Alexander "s1mple" Kostylev playing for the team. That time, the coach, Andrey "B1ad3" Gorodenskiy, played for the team. So, considering the previous game makes no sense. But we'll just say that FaZe Clan beat the Born to Win with a score of 2:1.

jL versus broky

Before the start of the final match, the best player of the Natus Vincere team is rifler Justinas "jL" Lekavicius, while for FaZe Clan, it's their sniper Håvard "broky" Saukants. Currently, jL's average rating is 6.8 against broky's 6.6.

Of course, comparing a rifler and a sniper is somewhat foolish, but right now, we are simply comparing the two best players of the teams based on indicators that are not particularly affected by their roles in the team.

If we look at the statistics on opening kills and everything related to them, we'll see that jL once again outpaces his opponent, as he manages to make a successful first kill on the map more often.

All that can be said here is that jL has greater mobility and a desire to aggress compared to broky. The latter often plays passively and does not make sudden movements. At one point, this could play a cruel joke on FaZe Clan, as in turn, the NAVI team's sniper, Igor "w0nderful" Zhdanov, is much more energetic.

One just needs to look at the comparison of all the team players, and it becomes obvious that these are ten players of the same caliber.

Current Form

FaZe Clan, compared to NAVI, appears to be the most stable team imaginable. After all, they have lost only one of their last five matches, and that was a BO1 against Eternal Fire. As for NAVI, the entire major has been a series of stumbles, losing to Cloud9 at one point and then making it to the final by beating G2. However, I dare say that this will not affect the team, as there is the form they have gained during the tournament and there is a goal — everything else is unimportant.

Map Pool

And here is where it becomes worrisome for the NAVI team because, compared to FaZe Clan, they have a rather limited map pool. NAVI always refuses Vertigo, which opens up the opportunity for FaZe to tailor the maps to their advantage.

FaZe Clan will choose either Inferno or Nuke as their pick, while NAVI would prefer to respond with a desert map — it will be either Anubis or Mirage.

It's hard to predict the decider, but it will definitely be a map that neither team performs very well on.

Prediction

As a fervent NAVI fan, it pains me to write this, but it probably has to be done. The last majors for the team's players were disappointing. iM was eliminated with a 0:2 score in the final of BLAST.tv Paris Major 2023 against Team Vitality. Aleksib was knocked out in the final in 2019, and b1t lost to FaZe Clan at PGL Major Antwerp 2022.

I bet that NAVI will still be able to take one map from FaZe Clan, as they currently look like absolute monsters. However, at this level, the snipers will decide everything, and the game of these two teams will be built around them.

So, a 2:1 victory for FaZe Clan. But in my heart, you understand — it's 2:0 for NAVI and the second championship title in the organization's history.

PGL Major Copenhagen 2024 takes place from March 17 to 31 on LAN in Copenhagen, Denmark. Teams are competing for a prize pool of $1.25 million. You can check the match schedule and follow the interim results of the event through the link.