On October 30, Natus Vincere will face Astralis in the group stage of BLAST Premier: World Final 2024 in CS2. The match is scheduled to start at 8:00 EET and will be played in a bo3 format. Here’s a preview, analysis, and prediction for the match.

Current Form

NAVI has been showing stable results in major tournaments, with an average rating of 6.2 over the past month. During this period, the team participated in the BLAST Premier: Fall Final 2024 and IEM Rio 2024. In Copenhagen, they reached the final but lost to G2 Esports with a score of 1:3. However, NAVI managed to redeem themselves in Rio, securing the trophy.

The team’s six-month performance is impressive, winning 4 out of their last 5 matches, defeating opponents such as Team Liquid, Virtus.pro, HEROIC, and MOUZ, and only losing to FURIA Esports. NAVI approaches this tournament as one of the favorites, although there are concerns about player fatigue, as they have been performing at the highest level for a prolonged period.

Astralis, on the other hand, is going through a rough patch (for yet another year). Their average rating at S-tier events over the past month stands at 5.9. Like NAVI, they participated in the BLAST Premier: Fall Final 2024 and IEM Rio 2024, but finished both tournaments at the bottom of the standings.

Out of their last five matches, Astralis won only one — against Eternal Fire. Their losses were against Team Vitality, Team Spirit, HEROIC, and VP. The team struggles with strategies, making them the underdog in the upcoming tournament.

Map Pool

NAVI typically bans Vertigo (38 times) as they strongly avoid playing on this map. They often choose Mirage (22 times, with a 77% win rate), Ancient (21 times, with a 76% win rate), and Nuke (21 times, with a 48% win rate). NAVI’s primary high win-rate maps are Dust2 (81%), Mirage (77%), and Ancient (76%). Overall, they perform well across most maps, except for Vertigo.

Astralis, in contrast, frequently bans Anubis (26 times), as it is their weakest map. They tend to choose maps that exploit the opponent's weaknesses, often selecting Inferno (15 times, with a 67% win rate), Mirage (14 times, with a 50% win rate), and Ancient (13 times, with a 38% win rate). Astralis’s strongest maps are Inferno (68%), Mirage (50%), and Nuke (50%). The team will likely attempt to contest one of these maps.

Head-to-Head

In the past six months, the teams have faced each other twice — two and four months ago. NAVI won both matches with a score of 2:0. The upcoming match is unlikely to change this trend.

Prediction by Bo3.gg

Given the current form of the teams and NAVI's map pool advantage, they are the clear favorites in this matchup. Their consistent results, recent tournament success, and strong statistics against Astralis suggest a confident victory. Astralis may try to contest a single map, but their chances of winning are slim.

PREDICTION: 2:0 in favor of NAVI

The BLAST Premier: World Final 2024 will be held from October 30 to November 3 in Singapore, with teams competing for a prize pool of one million dollars. Follow the tournament schedule and results via the link.