Map veto
When analyzing, it is worth starting with map veto because maps will be one of the main factors in this match. In NAVI vs. Outsiders, we definitely won't see Vertigo and Nuke, as teams will ban them in the first stage. Also, NAVI wouldn't like to play Ancient, even though in the last two matches, "black and yellow" won this map, the team still plays it badly.
Mirage will be the most profitable peak for Natus Vincere. However, Outsiders play this map poorly, so it will be easy for the Ukrainian team to win. In response, Outsiders can choose Ancient, which is weak in NAVI. However, not everything is good for the Armenian club at this location, so they might pick Inferno.
The final map will be chosen between Anubis and Overpass. On both maps, NAVI is now stronger. Variants of veto maps are Mirage-Inferno-Overpass, Mirage-Ancient-Inferno, and Mirage-Inferno-Anubis. Each veto option is beneficial to Natus Vincere.
The Outsiders are far from the best shape now: the defeat of Fnatic, a very tough match against Complexity for the playoff stage. Perhaps, having played so many games in the group stage, they managed to get their hands full and are ready for anything, but it is worth mentioning that they also have a new player KaiR0n-, for whom this will be the first experience playing in the big arena.Anton yushhin Yushin, Maincast commentator
Form
Outsiders look bad against the background of all the other teams in the group stage. The team lost to Fnatic and left the group only because NIP and OG played with replacements who had yet to have time to adapt. In the case of OG, one of the main riflemen of the team was replaced by a coach, which couldn't lead to victory.
We saw the actual level of Outsiders in the match with Complexity, which the team won only because Hallzerk's performance didn't go well. And even with this condition, the Outsiders almost lost the match. So the team is in terrible shape, and its entry into the playoffs is a coincidence.
At the same time, Natus Vincere was able to surprise. After BLAST Premier Spring Groups 2023, fans were disappointed in the team, but they showed an excellent game at this event. "Black-and-yellow" lost only to G2, which is currently the main favorite of the event.
NAVI improved during the break between events and now looks much better than Outsiders. As a result, it is difficult to imagine a scenario in which NAVI will lose.
As for NAVI, their game resembles the style of a drunk master. This is because, for me, their CS at this tournament constantly looks too risky, strange, and dangerous. However, this didn't prevent them from defeating Liquid and C9 2-0 each for a place in the playoffs. They only lost to G2. By the way, for npl, this LAN will also be the first experience in the arena, so the teams are equal in this matter.Anton yushhin Yushin, Maincast commentator
Prediction from yushhin
To be honest, I don't really want to get into statistics. You can easily explore it. So, I will talk about the other factor. This is an arena. Like all of Poland, Katowice became a refuge for millions of Ukrainians who fled from the Russian invasion to a safe place. Tomorrow, the Russian team will take the stage with a Russian composition and without any position regarding the actions of its state. Will they be met with applause?
Therefore, due to the arena factor, more confident play in the group, and stronger individual performance in general, NAVI should beat the opponent in the form of Outsiders and reach the semifinals.Anton yushhin Yushin, Maincast commentator
IEM Katowice 2023 takes place from February 1 to 12. Teams compete for a prize fund of $ 1 000 000. The schedule and results of the competition can be tracked here.
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