The upcoming match between Ninjas in Pyjamas (NIP) and HEROIC at ESL Pro League Season 20 is a highly anticipated clash between two teams that have been struggling to find their form recently. Both teams come into this tournament with something to prove, and their opening match will be crucial in setting the tone for the rest of their campaign. With both teams facing similar issues, this match could be a closely contested battle that may come down to key individual performances and tactical decisions.

Team Background and Recent Form

Ninjas in Pyjamas (NIP): NIP has had a rough season, consistently underperforming against teams that are far below their expected level. Their recent run in the ESL Challenger Atlanta 2024 Europe Closed Qualifier highlighted these struggles, as they were unable to secure victories even against lower-tier teams like GUN5 and Monte. Despite this, NIP has often claimed that they perform better on LAN, and this tournament presents a chance to prove that claim.

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The pressure is particularly high on Artem "r1nkle" Moroz, who has been one of the few bright spots in the NIP roster. His recent stats—6.2 rating, 0.71 kills per round (KPR), and 72 average damage per round (ADR)—show that he has the potential to carry his team. If NIP is to have any hope of making it deep into the playoffs, r1nkle will need to be at the top of his game.

HEROIC: HEROIC, much like NIP, has been struggling to find consistency. Despite qualifying for IEM Rio 2024 through the European Closed Qualifier, their overall performance has been shaky. The addition of Abdulkhalik "degster" Gasanov as their AWPer has not gone as smoothly as hoped, with the team struggling to adapt to his playstyle. This has resulted in inconsistent performances, particularly in critical matches where HEROIC has failed to close out games they were expected to win.

Degster's stats—6.1 rating, 0.68 KPR, and 67 ADR—reflect his current struggles. While he has moments of brilliance, the lack of synergy with the rest of the team is evident, and this could be a significant factor in their match against NIP.

Head-to-Head Analysis

Previous Encounters: Recent history between these two teams shows a slight edge for NIP, especially in closely contested maps. In their most recent encounters, NIP managed to take wins on Ancient and Anubis, which could give them a psychological advantage going into this match. However, HEROIC has also had their moments, particularly on maps like Vertigo, where they secured a solid win earlier in the season.

Current Form Comparison: When comparing current form, both teams are struggling, but NIP’s situation seems more dire, with frequent losses even against lower-tier opponents. HEROIC, while also inconsistent, has shown flashes of their potential, particularly in their ability to qualify for major events like IEM Rio 2024. This slight edge in form could give HEROIC an advantage, but NIP’s potential LAN performance cannot be discounted.

Tactical Analysis

Map Pool Comparison: The map pool will play a crucial role in this matchup. Over the last six months, NIP has shown decent results on Ancient (69.2% win rate) and Anubis (55.6%), while struggling significantly on maps like Mirage (20%) and Nuke (38.5%). HEROIC, on the other hand, has a more balanced map pool but has struggled on Anubis (40%) and Mirage (47.1%).

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Predicted Map Veto:

• HEROIC pick Mirage: Despite their lower win rate, Mirage is a map where HEROIC can capitalize on NIP’s significant struggles.
• NIP pick Vertigo: Vertigo has been a mixed bag for NIP, but it remains one of their better options against HEROIC, who are also not dominant on this map.
• Decider: Ancient: Ancient is likely to be the decider, given both teams’ comfort on the map and the close results they’ve had in the past.

Match Prediction

Expected Match Flow: This match is likely to be closely contested, with both teams having clear strengths and weaknesses. The early rounds will be critical, particularly on Mirage, where HEROIC will look to exploit NIP’s vulnerabilities. If NIP can survive the first map, the match could easily go to three maps, with Ancient being the decider.

Prediction: NIP has a real chance to win this match, especially if r1nkle steps up and HEROIC continues to struggle with degster’s integration. However, a 2-0 win seems unlikely given both teams’ inconsistencies. The most likely outcome is a 2-1 victory, with the edge slightly in favor of HEROIC due to their recent qualification for IEM Rio 2024 and their more balanced map pool.