Nova Esports vs FunPlus Phoenix Match Prediction and Analysis - VALORANT Radiant International Invitational Group Stage

On December 19th at 06:00 UTC, Nova Esports will face off against FunPlus Phoenix in a best-of-1 series as part of the VALORANT Radiant International Invitational Group Stage. We have analyzed the statistics and the current form of the teams to make a prediction for the match outcome. Match details can be found here.

Current form of the teams

Nova Esports come in with mixed indicators. Their overall win rate stands at 47%, but the trend over the last six months dips to 36%, and the last month reads 0% due to a single group-stage loss to Paper Rex on December 18th (0-1). Despite the rough recent percentage, November showed a high ceiling: Nova reached 2nd place at the China Evolution Series Epilogue after back-to-back playoff wins over EDward Gaming (2-1) and JD Gaming (2-1) before falling 1-3 to FPX in the grand final. The current winstreak is zero, and this group-stage rematch arrives less than 24 hours after their opening loss to Paper Rex.

FunPlus Phoenix’s curve is steadier. Their overall win rate is 49%, with an uptick to 53% over the last six months and 33% across the last month. FPX lifted the China Evolution Series Epilogue title in mid-November, beating Trace Esports 2-1 in the semifinal and Nova 3-1 in the final. In Shanghai at the start of December they exited in the semifinals (1-2 vs Trace). At this event’s opening day they split results, upsetting Paper Rex 1-0 and then losing 0-1 to Gen.G. The winstreak is currently zero, but their six-month profile remains the stronger of the two.

Head-to-Head Encounters

The matchup history favors FPX in the aggregate. Across the last five series in 2025, FPX lead 3-2, taking the July and August meetings 2-1 and winning November’s grand final 3-1. Nova claimed both early-year clashes 2-0 in February and March, but the balance tilted FPX’s way through the second half of the year. Overall, the head-to-head summary shows FPX with a 75% series win rate, reflecting their superiority in recent, longer series. The caveat here is format: this is a best-of-1, which compresses veto dynamics and historically narrows gaps between teams.

Match Prediction

Given the current form and historical data, this is close. FPX have the better six-month trend line and the head-to-head edge, while Nova’s November playoff run demonstrated a competitive ceiling against domestic peers. The best-of-1 format is the swing factor: it reduces FPX’s advantage from deeper map preparation and makes early-round adaptations and pistol/anti-eco conversion far more impactful. With probabilities essentially split at 51% for Nova and 49% for FPX, a single-map upset edge leans ever so slightly toward Nova, especially if they stabilize their early-round economy and tighten mid-round trading—areas that cost them against Paper Rex.

Prediction: Nova Esports 1:0 FunPlus Phoenix

VALORANT Radiant International Invitational takes place from December 18th to 21st in China, featuring a prize pool that has not been publicly disclosed. You can follow the news, schedule, and results of the tournament via the official tournament page.