On October 3rd at 18:30 CEST, G2 will face off against NAVI in a best-of-3 series as part of the ESL Pro League Season 24 Group Stage. This is an extremely important match for NAVI, as the team needs as many wins as possible to secure an invitation to the Major. We have analyzed the statistics and the current form of the teams to make a prediction for the match outcome. Match details can be found here.
Current form of the teams
G2 enter the group stage ranked 6th in the world per the current Valve rankings. Their form line is steady-to-positive: overall win rate sits at 61%, with 57% across the last 12 months, 60% over the last 6 months, and 63% in the last month. The most recent run at FISSURE Playground 3 ended in a 0–3 grand final loss to Legacy, but the path there featured solid series wins over BetBoom (2–1), FURIA (2–0), 5star (2–0), and 9z (2–1). G2 netted $75,000 for a 2nd-place finish and have accumulated $299,500 in the last 6 months, ranking 9th by earnings in that span. The official winstreak is at zero due to the grand final loss, but the broader trend across September remains encouraging.
Natus Vincere arrive as the higher-ranked side at 29th globally per the Valve rankings, but their short-term form has cooled. They post a 67% overall win rate, 59% over the last 12 months, 57% across the last 6 months, and 0% in the last month after dropping series to MOUZ (1–2) and Aurora (0–2) at StarSeries Fall, as well as to G2 (0–2) at BLAST Open Fall. The lone bright spot in that recent stretch was a 2–0 over paiN, but an earlier 1–2 loss to M80 underscores the inconsistency. NAVI placed 7–8th at StarSeries Fall and 9–12th at BLAST Open Fall, with $280,000 earned in the last 6 months (10th by earnings), and also sit on a neutral winstreak.
Teams’ Map Pool
The updated map statistics suggest that G2 will first ban Nuke, while Natus Vincere will remove Dust2. G2 have not played Nuke in the last six months, banned it 42 times, and removed it first in all five recent vetoes shown. NAVI’s recent pattern points toward Dust2, with first bans in their last four vetoes shown and 10 bans overall. Their 42% win rate across 12 appearances also makes it an understandable removal.
G2 are expected to pick Inferno, where they have won 68% of 19 maps compared with NAVI’s 46% across 13. G2 have also won three of their last five appearances, while NAVI have taken only two. Mirage is another credible option, but Inferno offers G2 a clearer statistical advantage.
Natus Vincere are projected to respond with Ancient. Their 69% win rate across 13 maps gives them an edge over G2’s 57% across 23. However, G2 have won four of their last five Ancient appearances, while NAVI have won two, suggesting that this could be a closely contested pick despite NAVI’s stronger six-month record. Anubis is another possible choice, with NAVI winning 63% of eight maps against G2’s 33% across nine.
In the second ban phase, G2 would likely remove Anubis, which they have banned 21 times during the period shown. NAVI could then eliminate Cache, where their perfect win rate comes from just one appearance and provides little evidence of a reliable advantage. This scenario would leave Mirage as the decider. G2 hold a narrow statistical edge at 64% across 22 maps against NAVI’s 60% across 15, with both teams winning three of their last five appearances. If reached, Mirage should offer a competitive finish with a slight lean toward G2.
Head-to-Head Encounters
Recent history tilts toward G2. They swept NAVI 2–0 on August 30th, 2026 at BLAST Open Fall, and also claimed two 2–1 wins earlier in 2026. NAVI’s last victories in the series came with a 2–0 on February 18th, 2026 and a 2–1 in June 2025. While the broader historical ledger still leans NAVI’s way overall, the last four meetings show G2 asserting control with three series wins, including the clean sweep five weeks ago.
Match Prediction
The updated map statistics give G2 a slight edge in the projected veto. Inferno is their clearest advantage, with a 68% win rate across 19 maps compared with Natus Vincere’s 46% across 13. With Nuke and Dust2 expected to be removed first, G2 should have a strong opportunity to secure their own pick.
NAVI have a realistic route back into the series on Ancient, where their 69% win rate exceeds G2’s 57%. However, G2 have won four of their last five appearances on the map, making Ancient a competitive matchup rather than a comfortable win for NAVI.
If both teams convert their picks, Mirage would provide a closely matched decider. G2 hold a narrow advantage at 64% across 22 maps against NAVI’s 60% across 15, while both have won three of their last five appearances. G2’s stronger Inferno record and slight Mirage edge support a victory, but NAVI’s chances on Ancient make a three-map result the more convincing prediction.
Prediction: G2 2:1 Natus Vincere
ESL Pro League Season 24 takes place from October 3rd to October 11th in Poland, featuring a prize pool of $1,000,000. You can follow the news, schedule, and results of the tournament via the tournament page.
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