On October 1st at 15:00 UTC, Astralis will face off against Alliance in a best-of-3 series as part of the Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs upper bracket. We have analyzed the statistics and the current form of the teams to make a prediction for the match outcome. Match details can be found here.
Current form of the teams
Astralis come in at No. 19 on the Valve world rankings. Their long-horizon numbers remain stable (overall win rate: 56%), with incremental improvement across the last 12 months (52%), last 6 months (54%), and a solid last 30 days at 57%. The recent ledger reads 3-2 across the last five: wins over FOKUS (2-0), Sangal (2-1), and Betclic (2-1) at Stake Pulse Beat II were offset by a tight semifinal loss to 100 Thieves (1-2) there and an earlier 1-2 exit against 5star at FISSURE Playground 3.
Astralis took 3-4th at Stake Pulse Beat II for $6,000 and have amassed $207,375 in the last six months, 12th by earnings globally. There’s no active winstreak, but their month-on-month form trend is positive.
Alliance are currently ranked No. 17 on the Valve world rankings. Their broader sample is strong (overall win rate: 58%), with an excellent last 12 months at 69% and a robust last 6 months at 61%, though the last 30 days dipped to 43%. They are 2-3 across the last five: victories over TYLOO (2-0) and magic (2-0) at FISSURE Playground 3 preceded a quarterfinal loss to MIBR (0-2), followed by two defeats at 1win Private Club 1 versus SINNERS (1-2) and 3DMAX (0-2).
Those runs yielded 5-6th at FISSURE Playground 3 ($25,000) and 7-8th at 1win Private Club 1 ($7,500). Their recent-half-year earnings stand at $111,079, 24th by earnings, and like Astralis they enter without a streak.
Teams’ Map Pool
The predicted map veto scenario suggests that Astralis will first ban Anubis, while Alliance will ban Inferno. Astralis are then expected to pick Train; if Train is in the event’s map pool, that would be a deliberate curveball—Astralis do not show official matches on Train in the last 6 months in this dataset, which implies pocket prep or scrim-based confidence. Alliance are projected to respond with a Nuke pick, a battleground they’ve played often in the last 6 months, while Astralis have struggled there. Following this, Astralis would likely remove Dust2, and Alliance would ban Ancient, leaving Mirage as the decider.
From a numbers standpoint over the last 6 months, Astralis have been excellent on Ancient (73% across 22 maps) and vulnerable on Nuke (29% across 14). Their Mirage is serviceable at 55% across 11 maps, Dust2 has been a liability at 20% across 10, and Inferno has hovered around break-even. Their ban patterns support the predicted first ban: Anubis has been a near-permaban (overall ban rate 91%, first-ban 94%). Alliance’s profile is anchored by a strong Inferno (73% across 22 maps) and a capable Anubis (58% across 12), with Ancient also playable at 58% across 19.
Historically, Alliance have heavily avoided Mirage (ban rate 95%, first-ban 97%), so a Mirage decider would be atypical and—on paper—favorable to Astralis given Alliance’s avoidance and Astralis’ 55% on the map. The predicted second-phase ban of Ancient by Alliance makes strategic sense to remove Astralis’ best card, while a Nuke pick tests Astralis at a historical weak point. Dust2 removal by Astralis is consistent with their form.
If Alliance deviate from the predicted Inferno first-ban and instead leave it open, they would likely enjoy an advantage there. Conversely, if Mirage slips through to a decider, the edge tilts toward Astralis due to comfort and Alliance’s long-term reluctance to play it.
Match Prediction
Given the current form and historical data, Astralis hold a narrow edge. Their trendline in the last month is stronger than Alliance’s, and several likely veto outcomes—especially a potential Mirage decider and Dust2 removal—mitigate some of their weaker positions. Alliance’s clearest win condition is a clean Nuke performance and a veto that preserves Inferno or denies Ancient; if they achieve both, a three-map bout becomes very live. However, with Astralis’ stability in recent weeks and better projected decider dynamics, the call is a close series leaning toward the Danes.
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