A month before the invitation distribution for the IEM Major Cologne by ESL, analyst Mischief updated the forecast using the VRS system. The schedule, number of LANs, and competitors' results have significantly influenced the power dynamics in the European race. Additionally, FUT Esports have officially secured their spot in the major, with their chances estimated at 99%.
Monte Almost in Cologne, B8 Slipped
The most noticeable change for Ukrainian fans is the drop in B8's chances to 20.0%. The team has fallen to a zone where not just a stable performance is needed, but practically a perfect season finish and mistakes from competitors.
Meanwhile, Monte has a 89.2% chance and has essentially secured a spot among the major participants. According to Mischief's estimates, the team is in an optimal position in VRS and has a favorable schedule.
European Battle for the Last Invites
Among the teams that are not yet passing according to the forecast, the situation is extremely tight:
- SINNERS Esports — 26.3%
- B8 — 20.0%
- Ninjas in Pyjamas — 16.4%
- Team Liquid — 16.3%
- Illuminar Gaming (illwill) — 14.6%
- OG — 14.1%
- Alliance — 10.3%
- K27 — 8.7%
- ECSTATIC — 3.8%
It's worth noting separately that BC.Game Esports, along with other European teams outside the top, have a combined 21.2% chance of making it to the tournament.
The slightly delayed update to the EU 🇪🇺 VRS race to get to the IEM Cologne Major
— Finn (@MischiefCS2) March 3, 2026
📅Teams' schedule having a significant impact on their chance to make the major.
Still chance for alot of change, particularly with LANW
🌎Americas later tonight! pic.twitter.com/njjJjLB8Ti
What Affects the Chances?
Mischief emphasizes: VRS is not just about victories, but also calendar strategy. The number of LAN tournaments played, the strength of opponents, and even the decisions of other teams regarding event participation directly affect the final ranking.
In particular:
- B8 feels the lack of enough "valuable" LAN points.
- SINNERS are "on the edge" but need a perfect season finish.
- Liquid and NIP have the potential to make a leap if they achieve deep runs in upcoming events.
The Overall Picture
The absolute favorites are Team Vitality, MOUZ, Team Spirit, and Natus Vincere — all of them have around 99% and have practically guaranteed participation.
With about a month left before the official invitations are sent out, the battle for the last slots in Europe promises to be extremely intense. One successful tournament or a competitor's failure can completely change the power dynamics in the race to Cologne.
Comments1